To reach a market valuation of $1.78 trillion in its IPO, SpaceX would need revenue from its AI business unit to grow by about 100 times over the next four years. The assessment is from the bank that coordinates the initial public offering of shares, Goldman Sachs, and was published by the Financial Times newspaper.
According to the report, based on the estimates discussed by the bank with a potential investor, the company’s AI unit should go from US$3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 to US$322 billion in 2030. Over the same horizon, SpaceX’s total revenue would increase from US$18.7 billion, recorded last year, to US$474 billion.
The projections help to measure the level of optimism that has been sustaining the race for assets linked to artificial intelligence on Wall Street. The Goldman Sachs model, presented verbally during the IPO roadshow, is part of the effort to attract resource managers to an operation that could raise up to US$86 billion.
Study abroad
Upgrade your career!
At the center of this thesis is xAI, SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division, which despite having recorded a loss of US$6.4 billion in 2025 appears as the main driver of value for Elon Musk’s conglomerate. According to the offering prospectus, this unit would operate in a total addressable market of US$26.5 trillion — a figure much higher than the potential market estimated at around US$2 trillion for Starlink and the company’s space operations.
According to Goldman Sachs’ projection, the leap would begin in 2026: the AI division’s revenue would grow 388%, reaching US$15.6 billion, and would reach US$34.5 billion in 2027. The estimates were confirmed to the Financial Times newspaper.
For this scenario to materialize, however, Musk’s Grok family of artificial intelligence models would have to not only approach, but surpass competitors such as OpenAI, Google and Anthropic on fronts considered critical, such as programming, autonomous agents, cybersecurity and chatbots.
Continues after advertising
SpaceX’s other business fronts appear in the background in the projections. Goldman Sachs expects Starlink to generate US$144 billion in revenue in 2030, less than half of what would be produced by the AI area. The rocket division is expected to earn US$8.3 billion in the same year, compared to US$4.1 billion recorded last year.
The bank also projects a significant increase in profitability. SpaceX’s adjusted Ebitda (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), according to the model, would go from US$6.6 billion in 2025 to US$352 billion in 2030.
Even so, the company’s current numbers show a reality that is still far from this scale. Last year, the company had negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion. Goldman’s expectation is that this indicator will only turn positive in 2031, when it would reach US$72 billion.
