The disclosure of this year’s electoral fund values confirms the PL and PT at the top of the resource pyramid, followed by Centrão. In the case of presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro’s party, the value tripled compared to 2022, when it had much less public money than the PT members. For the next campaign, seven acronyms account for more than 70% of the R$4.9 billion made available, which poses an additional challenge to others seeking to survive.
Among the parties, in addition to those representing Bolsonarism and PTism, only the PSD, led by former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, has its own candidacy for the Presidency, which tends to consume large portions of the party budget. The others tend to dedicate their resources to getting representatives, senators and governors.
As in 2018 the PL had a less boosted vote, as it was not yet Jair Bolsonaro’s home, the party reached the election four years ago with the then president affiliated, but only 6% of the total fund — R$288.5 million. Now, driven by Bolsonarism, it captures 18%. The amount tripled to R$881.6 million.
Despite being more timid, the PT also increased. There are R$615.4 million available this year for Lula’s party, compared to R$503.4 million in the previous electoral process. In percentage terms, it went from 10% to 12% overall. After a dispute in which he had almost twice as many as his main opponent, he is now at a financial disadvantage to seek re-election.
Following the PT members, with 11%, is União Brasil, despite the percentage drop compared to four years ago. Given that it is the result of the merger between the DEM and the PSL — through which Jair Bolsonaro was elected —, the party held the largest portion of the fund in 2022, following the strength registered in 2018 by the extinct party.
Together, the five main Centrão parties will receive almost half of the total amount. This gives the Union, PSD, PP, MDB and Republicans a huge financial structure to boost candidates for the Legislature and state governments, especially in the case of those who will not spend in the presidential election.
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— Today, creating a large bench and electing senators is almost as important as winning the Presidency, as the Legislature is stronger and a large bench allows you to fight for the presidency of the Chamber, the Senate or other important positions — points out political scientist Fernando Guarnieri, professor at Iesp-Uerj. — And there is a strong correlation between spending and elections. Whoever has more money can campaign in more municipalities.
The creation of the electoral fund, observes the researcher, came from those who already had a parliamentary mandate. Therefore, it favors re-election.
— The PL, for example, allocates more funds to those who were elected by the party in 2022 than to those who migrated later — observes Guarnieri, citing this year’s resolution from the Bolsonaro family party.
Among the main parties below the PL and PT on the list, only the PSD has a clear position so far for the presidential election, with the launch of Ronaldo Caiado. The others tend towards neutrality, especially after the federation made up of PP and União began to express behind the scenes a desire not to form part of Flávio’s alliance.
Survival
By not associating itself with Lula or Jair Bolsonaro’s son, an acronym of this profile can free up state directories, which are generally diverse: while some are more linked to PTism, others tend to Bolsonaroism. Another advantage mentioned is the very rationality of the fund’s money, since, without getting involved in the presidential race, there is more money left to finance candidates for other positions.
Some parties with a long tradition in Brazilian politics face the challenge of once again overcoming the barrier clause, which requires minimum performance for the parties to survive. This is the case of PSDB, PSB and PDT, for example, which will have fewer resources this year than in 2022.
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The most emblematic case is that of the toucans, who saw the amount fall to less than half. It was R$320 million four years ago, and now it is R$147.8 million. This is because, in addition to the poor performance in the last election, the party that polarized with the PT between 1994 and 2014 has also experienced a loss of cadres over the last few years.
After not having a presidential candidate for the first time since its foundation, the PSDB is still studying what to do in the next election. PSB and PDT will be in Lula’s alliance.
To calculate the division of the fund, the Electoral Court takes into account a series of factors. Only 2% is distributed equally among the 30 parties; 35% are given according to the vote obtained for the Chamber of Deputies in the previous dispute, 48% follow the logic of the size of the bench in the House after mergers and incorporations and 15% consider the bench in the Senate.
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In addition to the money reserved specifically for campaigns, the parties have access to the party fund, which serves a variety of uses, not just electoral purposes. His calculation is different, with fewer criteria: 95% consider the proportion of votes obtained for the Chamber in the previous election, and the other 5% are divided equally.
