The 2026 presidential race could impose a different challenge on Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) than the one faced by his father in the 2018 election. If eight years ago Jair Bolsonaro managed to reach the Planalto Palace driven mainly by the feeling of rejection of the PT and the anti-corruption discourse, the current scenario demands something more concrete from the candidates vying for power.
The assessment is from political scientist Lara Mesquita, professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), for whom the main obstacle to Flávio’s candidacy is not just overcoming the advantage of the public machine or facing a president seeking re-election. The challenge will be to present voters with a government project capable of responding to the economic and social concerns of the coming years.
“Now the Flávio government has to have an agenda. It will suffer from this lack of control over the budget. Different from what happened back then. Different from what happened under the Bolsonaro government. It will have to present what my plan is. What is my plan in the economy? What is my plan in health? In public security? It will have to bring an agenda. This is the main challenge for those who challenge the government”, he stated during Mapa de Risco, the political program of the InfoMoneythis Friday (5).
The observation is based on a structural change in Brazilian politics. Since the Bolsonaro government, Congress has significantly expanded its power over the Budget through parliamentary amendments, reducing the Executive’s capacity for action and making it more difficult to promise quick solutions to complex problems.
The challenge of those outside the government
For Lara, there is an important difference between the position occupied today by Lula and that of Flávio Bolsonaro. While the president can present programs, public policies and government results to support his candidacy, the senator needs to convince voters that he would be capable of managing an increasingly complex economic and political scenario.
“Whoever governs has a natural advantage. Normally we joke that the government loses the election. It is very difficult for the opponent to win. The government is the favorite because it is controlling the machine, because it had the chance to spend four years in the spotlight building its reputation, delivering benefits”, he stated.
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According to her, electoral logic tends to favor those already in power when the economic perception is positive or, at least, does not represent a source of great popular dissatisfaction.
“If everything is fine, it’s very difficult for you to say: I’m going to change this government that is doing well to bet on something uncertain.”
The weight of the economy
The experts’ analysis is that the economy will continue to be the electorate’s main evaluation criterion.
Lara highlights that studies in political science and electoral economics show that the perception of the months immediately preceding the election usually has disproportionate weight in the voting decision.
“We have several studies that show that the most important thing is this perception in the last six months before the election. We have studies from political economy, political science, economics that show that the voter’s memory is short-term when it comes to the economy”, he stated.
According to her, this helps explain the government’s strategy of concentrating efforts on measures aimed at income, credit and consumption on the eve of the campaign.
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But it also increases pressure on the opposition to present alternatives. If voters assess that their economic situation has improved, Flávio will need to offer a proposal capable of justifying the change of government.
Security may not be enough
Although public security continues to be one of the main flags of the right and appears among the issues of greatest concern to Brazilians, analysts estimate that it will hardly be enough to sustain a competitive presidential candidacy.
The perception is that the 2026 election tends to be decided by a combination of economic, social and fiscal factors. In this context, the ability to present a plan for growth, employment, inflation and public accounts can become as important as debates on crime and combating organized crime.
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For Lara, this is precisely the point that differentiates the current election from the dispute won by Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. At that time, the political environment was dominated by the erosion of the traditional political system and the effects of Operation Lava Jato. Today, the discussion increasingly concerns the ability to govern.
And it is in this area that, according to experts, Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy still needs to show voters what he intends to do if he reaches the Planalto Palace.
