Arabica coffee prices fell again on the New York Stock Exchange this Monday (8), pressured by the advance of the Brazilian harvest and the prospects of an increase in global supply. The Arabica coffee futures contract due in July closed the session down 0.24%, quoted at US$2.45 per pound.
According to an analysis by Barchart, the progress of the harvest in Brazil continues to be the main bearish factor for prices. The devaluation of the real against the dollar also contributed to pressure on prices by stimulating exports by Brazilian producers.
According to Leonardo Rossetti, market intelligence specialist at StoneX, the market had already been accumulating significant losses in the last week. In New York, Arabica coffee contracts fell 7.6%, reaching their lowest levels in more than a year and a half.
“The main pressure factor continues to be the expectation of a record harvest in Brazil, which should significantly increase supply in the coming weeks”, says Rossetti.
Despite still being behind the pace considered ideal, the Brazilian harvest continues to advance. A survey by StoneX shows that work on Arabica coffee reached 23% of the cultivated area by the end of last week, compared to 16% in the previous week. In conilon coffee, the percentage harvested increased from 33% to 42% in the same period.
The scenario of greater supply was also reinforced by the most recent projections from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). The body estimates that Brazilian coffee production in the 2026/27 harvest will reach 71 million bags. Although below StoneX’s projection of 75.3 million bags, the volume would still represent a record for the country.
On the global stage, the USDA predicts a 6.4% growth in world coffee production in the next season, which increases supply expectations and reduces pressure on stocks.
Over the next few weeks, the market should closely monitor weather conditions in Brazil’s main Arabica coffee producing regions. Temperatures close to 5°C during winter can increase price volatility. The impacts of the La Niña phenomenon between August and September are also on the radar, a period considered decisive for the flowering of the next harvest.
Cocoa
Cocoa futures closed with advances driven by concerns about weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and a movement to cover short positions by investors. The contract due in July advanced 1.83% and closed at US$3,831 per ton.
According to an analysis by Barchart, reports from Ivorian producers indicate that strong rains and winds hit producing areas of the country, causing damage to cocoa trees and destroying young flower buds. The situation raised concerns about the production potential of the next harvest and supported prices.
In addition to climate issues, the market was also influenced by the intense movement of investment funds. After weeks of strong downward pressure, investors began to repurchase contracts to close short positions, a movement known as covering short positions, which contributed to the recovery in prices.
Despite Monday’s rise, the market remains attentive to the increase in global stocks of the commodity. Last Friday, cocoa prices had fallen to their lowest levels in recent weeks in New York and London, pressured by the increase in certified stocks.
Stocks monitored by ICE, a reference exchange for the international market, reached 2.93 million bags, the highest level in approximately one year and nine months. The increase in physical availability of the product continues to put pressure on prices and limits more significant recovery movements.
Sugar
Sugar futures contracts ended the session lower on the New York Stock Exchange, despite the rise in oil prices, which brought some support to the market throughout the day.
The contract due in July fell 0.14% and closed at 14.12 cents per pound.
According to an analysis by Barchart, the rise in crude oil helped partially support sugar prices. With the appreciation of the energy commodity, ethanol becomes more competitive, increasing the possibility that plants will direct a greater portion of sugar cane to the production of biofuel instead of sugar.
This movement tends to reduce the global supply of the sweetener and, consequently, support international prices.
Cotton
Cotton futures contracts ended this session with moderate gains on the New York Stock Exchange. The month for July advanced 0.17% and closed at 73.39 cents per pound.
The market found support mainly in the weakness of the US dollar. A weaker dollar tends to increase the competitiveness of United States commodities on the international market, boosting demand and supporting cotton prices.
Furthermore, oil prices also rose throughout the session, contributing to a more positive environment for agricultural commodities.
Orange juice
The future expiration date for orange juice for delivery in July ended with an appreciation of 0.75%, with the contract closing at US$ 1.60 per pound.
