The international scenario, marked by tensions in the Middle East, the devaluation of the real and the climate phenomenon El Niño, could represent a significant risk to the recovery path for the approval of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The assessment is from Christopher Garman, executive director of Eurasia Group, at the WW.
For Garman, external factors that are beyond the control of any government can translate into inflationary pressure in Brazil, directly affecting the population’s cost of living and, consequently, the perception of the government.
War in the Middle East and economic impact
Garman highlighted that tensions between the United States and Iran raise doubts about what could happen in , with potential consequences for the world economy and for the vulnerabilities of Brazilian agribusiness.
“A risk that he does not control, but it exists,” said the expert when referring to the possibility of a global inflationary shock in the coming months.
“We may have the Strait of Hormuz closed for at least another month in our accounts, reaching almost two months, and we may have a resumption of hostilities,” he said.
This scenario, in his assessment, could generate a global inflationary shock of greater magnitude.
Exchange rate, El Niño and pressure on prices
The expert also drew attention to the devaluation of the real, which went from around R$4.90 to R$5.20 per dollar.
Garman attributed this movement to greater inflationary activity in the United States, which reduces expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, combined with the conflict in .
“So it’s a more devalued exchange rate with a conflict in the Middle East deteriorating,” he pointed out.
To these factors, Garman also added the possibility of El Niño affecting Brazil.
“You take all these factors and I would say that a risk for President Lula’s campaign is that the cost of living will become higher and the price of food will rise,” he said.
Therefore, according to him, it is difficult to say that the recovery of Lula’s approval will continue.
Pessimism and political disenchantment
In addition to external risks, Garman highlighted something that catches his attention in recent research: a deep degree of pessimism among the population.
According to him, a survey by Genial/Quaest revealed that 40% of the population prefers a candidate who is neither Bolsonaro, reflecting a perception that the country is in the wrong direction.
However, the expert considers that this disenchantment has not yet translated into voting intentions for other candidates, simply because they are not known by the electorate.
“We will only find out during the campaign, when these candidates can present themselves,” said Garman.
For him, the possibility of a third candidate reaching the second round is being underestimated, given the level of disenchantment observed.
