At a critical juncture for , Washington and Tehran are (memorandum of understanding), despite the recent war episode.
In particular, the American forces (Centcom) shot down several Iranian offensive drones that targeted commercial ships in , with navigation now continuing unhindered.
In particular, the US announced today that it shot down several Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the optimism expressed a few hours earlier by both sides regarding a peace agreement.
“Iran has launched several offensive drones aimed at hitting commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” the US military’s joint Middle East Command (Centcom) wrote in X.
“American forces have shot them all down in the last few hours” and the passage of ships through the Straits of Hormuz “continues unhindered,” he added.
The incident came as Tehran, mediator Pakistan and Washington expressed optimism that after weeks of grueling negotiations and dashed hopes, an agreement could be reached to end the Middle East war.
Despite this temporary flare-up, the climate of optimism remains strong. The mediator of the process and the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, said that “peace has never been so close”, while a US official estimated the probability of an agreement at 80-85%.
What does the draft Iran-US agreement provide for?
The two sides appear to be settling on a draft with specific immediate de-escalation steps:
- 60 day truce: Ceasefire on all fronts (including Lebanon) for a period of 60 days.
- Navigation and ports: Iran will allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz again, while the US will end its naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf.
- Management in the Straits of Hormuz: Initiation of discussions between Iran and states in the region on the future management regime of the Straits.
- Nuclear negotiations: Start of technical talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with a maximum duration of 60 days of the ceasefire (without being clear about what will happen if these fail).
How and by whom it will be signed
Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi initially said the signing could be done digitally and “remotely” in the coming days, reports say the deal will be finalized in Geneva (where preliminary talks took place in February, before the war broke out).
The heads of delegations are expected to be:
- For the USA: Vice President Jay D. Vance (at the behest of Donald Trump).
- For Iran: General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament.
The 6 “thorns” of negotiations – Why a ceasefire is not yet peace
The memorandum of understanding is just a first step. The real test begins soon after, with both sides called upon to resolve some of their most complex issues
- The future of the nuclear program: Although the Trump administration claims Iran is committed to not acquiring nuclear weapons, it remains unclear whether Tehran will keep a limited program for peaceful purposes or be forced to completely end uranium enrichment.
- The surveillance mechanism: The big question is who, how and with what frequency will check the Iranian facilities. The issue is reminiscent of the Obama-era deal, which Trump has strongly criticized as inadequate.
- Stockpiles of enriched uranium: Washington is calling for the destruction or removal of the existing material (some of which is deep underground). The scenario of converting it to a lower enrichment fuel is also being considered.
- Tehran’s “frozen” billions: Iran is demanding the release of tens of billions of dollars in assets. The Trump administration makes clear that there will be no immediate financial reward and that access to the money will be phased in, depending on Iran’s compliance.
- Permanent security in the Straits of Hormuz: Washington wants to ensure that Iran does not again use control of this strategic corridor as leverage on global energy markets in the future.
- The regional organizations and Israel’s attitude: Curbing Iranian support for organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas remains a thorny issue. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making it clear that he will not accept any deal that does not permanently prevent Iran’s nuclear weapons, with the Iranian foreign minister accusing Israel of looking for pretexts to sabotage the deal.
