The next President of the Republic will be able to influence the composition of one fifth of the votes in the higher courts and the (Supreme Federal Court). The biggest impact will be precisely on the country’s highest court, where the person elected in October will be able to nominate 36% of its members, in a choice that does not need to comply with lists pre-drawn by the Judiciary itself.
Of the total of 99 full and substitute ministers, 21 vacancies are or will be open by January 5, 2031, shows a survey of Sheet. The nominations of whoever is elected to the Presidency in October could change the balance of forces in these courts, across the political spectrum, for years.
The number considers the 4 seats that are already unoccupied and have not yet been filled by the president and another 13 that will remain vacant until 2030 at the age of 75. There are also four in the (Superior Electoral Court), where permanence is for two-year terms.
New spaces can emerge with possible early resignations, as Luís Roberto Barroso did at the STF, deaths, impeachments and denunciations that force them to leave early. One of those under pressure is the minister of the (Superior Court of Justice) Marco Buzzi, who has been removed since February under the , which he denies.
Furthermore, the Judiciary became a central topic in , after criticism about supposed judicial activism and that of ministers with businessmen such as Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master. Practically all pre-candidates, from Lula to (), , which could also impact the future composition of the courts.
The court that will undergo the biggest change is the STF, with the change of 4 of the 11 ministers, a reconfiguration with the potential to impact the outcome of trials and change jurisprudence. A vacancy has been open since last October with Barroso’s retirement and should only be filled after the election.
Lula appointed the minister of the AGU (Attorney General of the Union), Jorge Messias, but the . The PT member insists on forwarding the name of his ally, but the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), promised the opposition that he would elect him in October.
Over the next four years, at least three other ministers will retire. will leave office by April 26, 2028. Cármen Lúcia, by April 19, 2029. Both were appointed during PT administrations.
One unknown is the replacement of Gilmar Mendes. He retires when the lights go out for the next government, on December 30, 2030. The date could mean that the choice will be left to the next president, but, behind the scenes, there is the perception that the current dean could leave early to nominate a name he trusts for the vacancy and thus maintain his influence on the court.
In the case of the STF, the President of the Republic can nominate as minister any Brazilian citizen with an unblemished reputation, “remarkable legal knowledge” and over 35 years of age. The Senate has the role of hearing the chosen candidate and voting on whether they agree with the suggestion. Since the proclamation of the Republic, in 1889, – the last one before Messiah, more than 130 years ago.
In most other courts, the president must choose a name from a triple list drawn up by the body itself. Even though he does not have complete autonomy to choose an ally, the decision takes into account political sponsors, the profile of the candidates and the political alignment of each one, and allows the president to influence the direction and judgments of the court.
In the current Lula government, the process of defining ministers has become more structured, after a series of choices that led to setbacks for the PT, such as that of Fux for the STF – a minister who later aligned himself with the former president (PL) for the attempted coup d’état.
If in the party’s previous administrations the selection passed almost exclusively through the Ministry of Justice before reaching the presidential table, now four departments give their opinion: Justice, Civil House, Institutional Relations and Attorney General of the Union, in addition to the SAJ (Secretariat of Legal Affairs). A history of previous judgments is collected to better form the agent’s opinion.
President Lula would dispatch on Friday (12) the Judiciary since Messias’ setback. There are 29 vacancies on his table, most of them in regional electoral courts, which should be a priority given the proximity of the campaign. The meeting ended up being postponed due to other commitments, which maintains the impasse over positions already open, such as minister of the (Superior Labor Court).
The court drew up the triple list to choose the president, who will now have to decide between those sponsored by allies such as the president of , (-PB), the former governor of Pará Helder Barbalho (MDB) and the president of the PSB and former mayor of Recife .
At least four other ministers with a progressive profile will retire by 2028, which could change the configuration of forces within the court, recently involved in a controversy between those most aligned with companies versus those most inclined to workers’ demands. The TST is made up of 27 members.
The STJ has also had a vacancy open since April. The triple list has not yet been drawn up and, with the tight deadline until the start of the campaign and the need for approval in the Senate, it is likely that the choice will be made until after the election.
Og Fernandes will leave the STJ later this year, in November, and four other ministers will retire between 2027 and 2029. In the current composition, only 5 of the 33 ministers were not appointed in the PT governments. If Lula is re-elected, the number should drop to just three. If the right wins, it could jump to at least seven.
At the (Superior Military Court), 2 of the 15 ministers will retire in the next presidential term. Francisco Camelo represents the Air Force, while Péricles Lima de Queiroz is a civilian. Military ministers are suggested by the Armed Forces leadership, without going through a triple list.
In the TSE, it is up to the president to nominate 2 of the 7 sitting ministers, in addition to two substitutes. As the mandates are two years, the renewal is large, but the chosen one has influence on the electoral direction of city halls, state governments and even the presidential chair itself.
At the TCU (Federal Audit Court), the three positions for appointing the President of the Republic are already filled until at least 2031. A position for the Chamber will open in December, with the . Although the choice is made by the deputies, the government usually has some influence.
