The equation of the last war in the Middle East began with an endless number of unknowns to be resolved about Iran: its power of resistance against the bombings, which was greater than expected, its ability to rebuild its military arsenal, also greater than expected, against all odds, or its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, which it has maintained practically since the beginning of the confrontation.
Today, according to agreement, the biggest questions rest on that tongue of sea, barely 34 kilometers at its narrowest point but through which a fifth of the oil consumed by the world transits: will ships be able to pass freely starting Friday or will they have to pay a toll? Will the shipowners believe it and, even more importantly, will they? Does Tehran really have the option to close it down again if things go wrong again in the coming months, as it has already said?
The promise – one of many, another one – of the president of the United States is that the strait will return to normal “immediately.” “It will be open to everyone,” Donald Trump suggested on Saturday. “Ships of the world: start engines! Let the oil flow!” he added on Sunday, when the pact was already a fact despite the fact that Iran still did not say this is my mouth.
Waiting for it to be true – this time it is – there are more than half a thousand ships of all stripes, from bulk carriers to freighters, from oil tankers to LNG tankers, which have been trapped in the area for more than three months and should soon reach the Indian Ocean. A relief for , some of them in . Finally some good news after 105 days of calamities. End, or so it seems, to his ordeal.
If the Republican’s words come true, the leap would be gigantic compared to the current situation. Although in recent weeks the double wall over Hormuz, with dozens of crossings a day, the ships that dared to do so only had three alternatives: agree with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, leave escorted by the US Navy or turn off the transponder – to avoid being detected – and . Their hope, we will see if it ends up being substantiated, is that starting Friday they will no longer have to juggle to cross the strait.
At the edge of summer
The theoretical reopening comes at a critical moment. If Hormuz entered the summer still with the “closed” sign, . Reserves of oil, gas and their derivatives (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, fertilizers…) are shivering, especially in Southeast Asia and the United States. Europe was approaching the peak time of year for jet fuel with huge doubts about its ability to supply airlines. And, if you want to avoid problems, the time to refill the gas tanks for the winter is right now: with the world’s third largest LNG exporter (Qatar) out of the game, the undertaking seemed difficult. Not anymore.
If oil and LNG tankers once again flow unhindered from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait or Bahrain to Ningbo-Zhoushan (China), Vadinar (India), Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, Montoir-de-Bretagne or Algeciras, the recent peak in tension will be history. Back, for good, to the starting box: goodbye to the ghosts of the second energy crisis so far this decade – which will be decided soon – after the one triggered by the end of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And a boost of income for the Gulf countries.
The price of oil type brentthe reference in Europe, is today around 80 dollars per barrel, very far from the 120 that . An important respite that should also increase in the coming months: at the beginning of the year, when Trump’s threats on Iran still sounded distant, crude oil was around $60 per barrel and, far from lacking, there was plenty of it. With Hormuz reopened, there is nothing to suggest that these levels cannot return in the medium term. As soon as the dwindling strategic reserves have been replenished.
Damage and mistrust
The last big question has to do with the state of the energy infrastructure in the countries of the Persian Gulf. Some: dozens of them, among others, have suffered bombings. Several have returned to operating normally. Others don’t. We will have to count the damage and check how quickly the pumping can be recovered.
Despite the many unknowns, the markets have been celebrating for days the progress that an eventual pact could mean for the normal functioning of global energy chains. Dislocated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the joint offensive of the United States and Israel on Iran had ended up plunging them into a dangerous uncertainty that, with luck, they will be able to begin to shake off as of Friday. However, it will take weeks, perhaps months, for maritime shipping to return to normal. Only time will restore confidence in the area.
