Shortly after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump set out a series of goals, from destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capability to ensuring that Tehran can never have a nuclear weapon.
More than three months later, with a preliminary peace agreement in place, what has Trump accomplished? This is the Reuters agency’s analysis of the state of the matter:
Missiles and drones
Before the war, Iran had the largest ballistic arsenal in the Middle East, with between 2,500 and 6,000 missiles of different types. Some were capable of reaching Israel, with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, and others carried cluster munition warheads, which were more difficult to intercept.
Iran is also a major manufacturer of long-range drones, particularly the unidirectional Shahed drone, used by Russia against Ukraine as well as Tehran.
About a month after the start of the war, US sources told Reuters that a third of that arsenal had been destroyed, and that another third was likely damaged, destroyed or buried.
US Admiral Brad Cooper testified before Congress on May 14 that Iran’s ability to manufacture and stockpile long-range missiles and drones had been affected in years. He claimed that the US and its allies had intercepted more than 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones during the conflict.
It is unknown how many missiles Iran has left, but the country still has the ability to hit US allies; most recently, on June 6, when it launched attacks against Kuwait and Bahrain, and on June 7, when it fired missiles at Israel. These countries stated that the attacks did not cause significant damage.
Women walk past a sign with an image of US President Donald Trump, injured and on crutches, on June 17, 2026, in Tehran, Iran.
conventional army
The US military claims to have weakened Iran’s conventional military ability to project power in the region or threaten US operations. Cooper testified before Congress that the US military had destroyed 161 Iranian navy ships and disabled 82% of its air defense systems. He added that the Iranian air force, which before the war carried out up to 100 sorties a day, now does not carry out any missions.
Despite this, Iran managed to effectively blockade the Strait of Hormuz throughout the conflict, blocking the passage of merchant ships carrying a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas through the use of speedboats, mines, drones and missile boats.
nuclear program
Trump has repeatedly stated that his main goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently stated that it has no intention of building a bomb and that its program is for peaceful purposes.
However, the war has not significantly changed Iran’s nuclear capabilities. U.S. intelligence estimated last month that Iran would need less than a year to produce a nuclear weapon, the same deadline it set after the June 2025 attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. The ayatollahs’ nuclear program will be a central issue for negotiators once the framework agreement is formally signed on Friday. Trump has declared that Iran’s enriched uranium should be removed from the country, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei says it should not be sent abroad, according to sources.
Regional allies
On March 2, Trump declared at the White House that Tehran cannot be allowed to continue arming and financing allied armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen (the so-called Axis of Resistance), which Iran has relied on for decades to project power and harass its enemies.
Iran has shown no willingness to end its support for these groups since the start of the war, but US and independent military assessments have concluded that the network of Iranian-allied groups is much less effective than before.
Much of this was already underway before the start of the war. Israel eliminated many of Hamas’ top leaders and thousands of its fighters in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attack on its territory, and also killed much of the leadership of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Iran also lost a major supply route for Hezbollah with the collapse of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in 2024. Iran’s sanctions and economic problems also undermined its ability to finance these groups.
These groups have not played a relevant role in the war. Hamas has not attacked Israel from its enclave in Gaza, while the Houthis have not significantly disrupted maritime traffic in the Red Sea from Yemen.
Hezbollah joined the war on March 2 by launching missiles and drones at Israel, prompting Israel to respond with airstrikes and a ground invasion that have killed nearly 3,700 people and displaced 1.2 million in Lebanon. So far, 28 Israeli soldiers and four civilians have died in the conflict.
Cooper testified before Congress in May that Iran no longer has the ability to reliably supply advanced weapons to such groups, although he did not specify what he meant.
A man holds a sign with the image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during an anti-American demonstration on March 22, 2026, in Tehran.
Regime change
Trump encouraged Iranian protesters to overthrow their rulers before the war began and claimed that the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 represented their “biggest opportunity” to take control of the government. On March 6, he declared that the war would only end with Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” along with a new “acceptable” leader.
Although the war has failed to overthrow Iran’s theocratic government, Trump has claimed to have accomplished his goal, as Khamenei has been replaced by his son, Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei. On March 29, Trump described the new leadership as “a new, more reasonable regime.”
In recent weeks, Trump has refrained from repeating his calls for the overthrow of Iranian leaders.
