No one knows why he attacked and no one knows why he suspended the bombings. Not even he knows what results he will achieve after a war that has already cost Americans close to US$30 billion. This is the price of theatrical wars.
Trump went after Iran after a surprising success against Venezuela. He kidnapped the dictator, absorbed the dictatorship and pocketed the oil. He started the war with Iran by killing the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, tried to decapitate the Ayatollahs’ regime and got bogged down.
In the first days of the war, Trump issued a demand and a threat. First, he said that the attacks would continue until Iran’s “unconditional surrender” was achieved, then neither expression was original. One was placed on the Allied table in 1943 by American President Franklin Roosevelt. Two years later, when the Germans signed the surrender, American General Dwight Eisenhower did not even extend a hand to the German. The threat was a bravado by General Curtis Le May against the Vietnamese. It failed and the Americans returned home after having lost 58,000 soldiers. (Since then, American presidents have avoided using infantry in their wars.)
The two lines indicate that Trump fights wars like someone playing arcade games. If it works, it works. If not, victory is declared and the field leaves. At the end. The Iranian opposition that would rise became smaller.
By November, when an election could take the Republicans out of control of the House of Representatives, Trump will be looking for a victory and is the first candidate. Venezuela proved to be a mess because the dictatorship was corrupt, unpopular and maintained at the expense of a stolen election.
Iran is stuck in the mess and Trump has an ally in , with his own agenda. In the Caribbean, more than half a century after the Castro revolution, with its romantic aura, the road seems free.
In Cuba, the energy crisis brought ruin to the daily lives of the inhabitants, whether they liked the regime or not. The establishment of a new order in Cuba gives Trump a victory whose extent is still unpredictable. It gives the (son of Cubans) a success that puts him closer to the White House in 2028 and could give some survival to the commercial and bureaucratic complex of the Armed Forces, as happened in Venezuela. Cuba has a special attraction for Trump and his ilk: a change of regime, even a partial one, will bring with it a massive real estate boom. Roughly, it can be estimated that with the sale of a studio in Miami it will be possible to buy a new three-bedroom and living-room apartment on the island.
No Iranian would gain from Trump’s war. In the case of Cuba, the deal is different, and the first to win will be Cuba itself, who thought of creating a Riviera in the Gaza Strip.
The latest sign that they are preparing for trouble with Cuba came from Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, who threatened a confrontation if Havana purchases weapons capable of reaching American territory, or the Guantánamo military base.
Now, Guantánamo is in Cuba.
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