““Reality imposes urgent and necessary changes on us.”. The ruling of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) occupies the cover of its official organ this Thursday, Granmaand summarizes the approval by the senior staff of the economic and social transformations presented days ago by the Prime Minister, Manuel Marrero Cruz. The opening to Cuban-American capital, the changes in the real estate and banking business, the new land use regulations and, in addition, the profound adjustment in the state apparatus, were announced in the midst of an unprecedented crisis that has the island in the darkincreasingly impoverished, and with scenes of street unrest that demand constant police surveillance.
Santiago de Cuba has been the scene of strong expressions of discontent in recent hours. The green light issued by the Central Committee, headed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, will have immediate effect on the National Assembly. The legislature meets starting this Thursday and its culture of almost always unanimous approval of initiatives will not be challenged for several reasons. The first and most urgent is that At this point, Havana needs Washington to express its agreement with the turnalthough at the moment it does not have a political correspondence. Since January, the United States has strangled the island with an energy blockade and pressure on foreign investors to leave the island, something that has happened clearly and rapidly in strategic areas such as tourism and mining.
There is a second reason for the ruling party to endorse the reforms. They have the support of Raúl Castro. Major General José Amado Ricardo Guerra, member of the Political Bureau and secretary of the Council of Ministers, said that the nonagenarian general had been consulted and showed “full agreement.” Granma cited a recommendation from historical leadership. “Equally or more important than the approval of these transformations is their adequate and timely implementation.” According to Castro, it is not only about “resisting” the US offensive, which has it at the center of its actions with a judicial accusation filed in a Miami court, but “moving forward and developing.”
Silence from the White House
The silence of the White House is eloquent in the face of the attempt to modernize the banking, financial and tax system, the willingness to implement a new pricing policy, promote the autonomy of state companies and municipalities, and grant greater facilities for foreign investment. The package of measures includes the partial dollarization of the economy and an opening that must be extended with greater emphasis to transportation, commerce in general, gastronomy and services. The US has also demanded political changes and the withdrawal of the military from controlling the economy.
Surprisingly, Díaz-Canel has formed a group of experts to discuss the initiatives. That instance for the first time does not respond vertically to the PCC nor to the ministerial apparatuses. Among them are economists such as Julio Carranza, who decades ago was part of the defunct American Studies Center (CEA)and that for years has been demanding profound changes in the economy so as not to succumb drastically. Carranza has been in favor of quickly implementing changes that reflect the experiences in Vietnam and China. “The broad stroke of the reform has a lot to do with the characteristics that the socialist reforms adopted in those countries. Some of us have been proposing that for 30 years. and things have been done. The current Cuban economy is not the same as that of the 90s or the early 2000s. However, that path has been truncated. None of the president’s new advisors minimizes the consequences of US policy. They also agree, with varying intensity, on the need for the private sector to grow and measures to be taken to put a stop to monetary chaos.
Pessimism
Twenty hours a day of blackouts in some provinces, the worst sugar harvest of the century, and the paralyzed productive apparatus precede this reformist wave. For some specialists it is late and just the result of pressure from the US when it had to respond to the collapse caused by internal policies. “Without access to energy, currencies, technologies and external demand, Decisions associated with ‘refining’ the current model are unlikely to be effective. A much deeper transformation would be needed, which is not on the agenda of the communist party,” he warned. Pedro Monreal, former member of the CEA, and one of the most implacable critics of post-Castroism.
According to ECLAC, Cuban GDP will fall by 6.5% in 2026, with an accumulated contraction of 10.3% in the 2025-2026 biennium and a loss of about 26% since the year of the pandemic. Marrero Cruz has insisted during these hours that the Government is not completely abandoning its horizon. “We want to reiterate that These transformations do not constitute a deviation from our socialist projectOn the contrary, they respond to the logic of their development.” The rector of the University of Havana, Miriam Nicado García, however, warned about the dangers of deepening the inequalities made visible during the last decade and that undeniably changed the urban scene due to the presence of beggars and youth gangs. While the Central Committee was discussing the measures, it was learned that a branch of the Metropolitan Bank of Havana was robbed in an action that shortly back it would have been incredible for a society accustomed to more efficient control mechanisms. The thieves broke the ATM and stole the money destined for the pensioners of the Lawton neighborhood.
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