Less than a month before the deadline set for the United States to decide on the application of a 25% surcharge on Brazilian products, members of the Lula government see a scenario of uncertainty regarding the negotiations to revoke the measure. The perception is that Donald Trump’s government has not yet made clear what measures or concessions it would consider sufficient to review the tariff proposal, causing the process to be described within the government as a negotiation “in the dark”.
The new round of trade tensions originated from an investigation conducted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which concluded this month that Brazilian policies would be “unreasonable” or “discriminatory” against American interests. The report served as the basis for the proposal for an additional tariff of 25% on products from Brazil.
The document brings together criticisms of topics that go beyond the traditional commercial agenda, including court decisions involving digital platforms, the Pix payment system, access to the ethanol market, intellectual property and environmental issues. The problem, in the opinion of government members, is that the Americans have not yet indicated which of these points are effectively negotiable and which merely represent political justifications to support the measure.
The government’s expectation is that new conversations will take place in the coming weeks between technical teams from both countries. Interlocutors involved in the discussions state that the focus, at this moment, is on trying to identify which areas could involve some understanding without reaching topics considered non-negotiable by Brazil.
Among the red lines established by the government are Pix and any issue related to the Brazilian electoral system. The assessment is that these issues will not be subject to negotiation with Washington.
— Pix doesn’t work. It’s off the table,” said a source.
According to assessments, the difficulty in moving forward arises from the need for President Donald Trump to find some result that can be presented internally as a political victory.
This equation is seen as the main challenge in the coming weeks, which could make it difficult to find a point of convergence that satisfies the political interests of the Trump administration without generating the perception that Brazil has given in on issues linked to national sovereignty. Despite the differences, the government intends to keep negotiations open until the deadline set by the Americans.
Discussions should continue to be concentrated in technical groups. During the G7 summit, held this week in France, the issue was not discussed directly between Brazilian authorities and the American trade representative, Jamieson Greer, although he was present at the event. The expectation is that a new meeting with the Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Márcio Elias Rosa, will be held soon.
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