Donald Trump declared the trade war a China to end the structural imbalance and claimed victory after achieving that Beijing I would buy soybeans again and sell rare minerals. Then he declared the guerra a Iran to change their government and eliminate their nuclear program and claimed victory after getting Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The drama for USA It is not that things are as they were: along the way the world has proven that the greatest economic power cannot withstand China nor can the world’s greatest military power with Iran.
China is a more likely winner in the first, after repelling tariff attacks, and in the second, without firing a single shot. Emerges as the only superpower responsible, defender of international law and dialogue while Trump threatened to return Iran to the stone age, destroyed supply chains and generated energy shortages. The head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yihas spoken by phone 26 times with the region’s leaders from February 28 until the agreement. Zhai Junthe special envoy to Middle Easthas held two dozen meetings, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Their feverish activity comes when countries in the area have discovered the limitations of the American military umbrella that they believed to be impregnable. A security strategy that also includes Beijing y Moscow It seems more recommendable now.
blow to Asia
He conflict has punished more strongly Asia. On the one hand, it lacks alternative supply routes to Hormuz, which has caused shortages among the population that the imaginative measures of the Governments have not always been able to alleviate. On the other hand, the transfer of US military assets from Peaceful to the Middle East has raised questions about Trump’s commitment to the region. In Iran it has committed 80% of its missiles long-range, low-detectability cruise, in addition to a good part of its inventory of dronesTomahawk and Patriot missiles. Months ago it had already moved a THAAD anti-missile shield from South Korea to the Middle East. Japan regrets the delays armament promised and Taiwan press to Washington so that it fulfills the signed operations that now depend on commercial harmony with Beijing.
Tokio, Seoul o Taipei They are justified in wondering about their place in Trump’s priorities while China, understandably distressed by the US military encirclement, is imagined to be more relaxed these days. These uncertainties were posed to Pete HegsethUS Secretary of Defense, at the recent Shangri-la Dialogue, the continent’s main military forum. “We can do two things at the same time,” he promised a concerned audience.
These months have also served Beijing to discover American war techniques. If the two powers come to blows, a scenario that pessimists take for granted, the war in Iran will have been more useful to Beijing than any simulation. He has seen firsthand the military applications of artificial intelligence and the movements of its Navy, especially valuable in a conflict in Taiwan, but also that a few mediocre Iranian drones are enough to put it in trouble.
China avoids energy cut
When the first missiles were flying over Iran, the Republican ranks predicted China’s imminent energy problems and Trump even encouraged her to participate in maritime patrols, assuring that she was desperate. Beijing buys 90% of oil Iranian and half of its imports arrive through Hormuz. But its reopening has been agreed long before China noticed its effects. Already in February he had activated the security protocol: he stopped the exports of multinationals and public companies, resorted to its own reserves rawclamped down the operation of the refineries and accelerated the production of coal. China, furthermore, was protected by its spirited drive towards green energies. Make more electric cars than the rest of the planet and has deployed so much capacity solar energy and wind power like the rest of the world. The commitment to renewables is squaring the circle: it has fixed environmental ruin, it has shielded the country from global energy crises and it has turned it into a powerhouse in a key industry.
The war has accentuated its conquest in a world convinced that two supply crises in five years, first due to Ukraine and now Iran, they disqualify the fossil fuels as reliable. Chinese exports of solar panels, batteries and electric cars skyrocketed 70% in March compared to the same month last year, according to Chinese customs data. There are no clearer winners in the Iran conflict than electric vehicles, a sector in which China admits no competitor.
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