In the match summary tables, each team’s “Ball Possession %” always appears. It can give the impression that the higher the number, the better the team played. But this is far from true. And Brazil can even benefit from this reality.
Among the ten teams with the most chances of winning the title according to the Opta model (France, Argentina, Spain, England, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, United States, Norway and the Netherlands), Brazil had the second lowest possession of the ball in their debut, with 51.4% in the draw with Morocco, ahead of only Argentina (47.8%).
In the second game, against a fragile Haiti, possession rose to 56.7%. It’s not so much if we compare, for example, with Germany, which reached 64.6% against Curaçao (83rd in the FIFA ranking, close to Haiti, 87th). The Germans won 7-1.
But the World Cup itself is relativizing the importance of possession of the ball. Portugal had 75.4% against DR Congo and didn’t come out of a 1-1 draw. Spain, with 74.3% against Cape Verde, didn’t even manage to score.
If Germany scored with ball possession above 60%, France delighted against Senegal with just 53.4%. Another one that shone, England had 51.7% (but, to be fair, the opponent was Croatia, in a match that was more difficult to maintain great possession).
The World Cup has confirmed studies from recent years. Work published in 2023 in the journal Pedagogy of Physical Culture and Sports, which analyzed the 64 matches of the Qatar Cup, concluded that accurate finishing and offensive efficiency —not possession of the ball— were most associated with victories. The effect of ball possession actually appeared as an indicator of unsuccessful teams (along with a large number of crosses and corners conceded).
Why does a team choose to play with a lot of possession? One of the main reasons is defensive. If you control the ball, there is less chance of scoring.
Like everything, the difference between success and failure is execution. In 2010, Spain played the ball game masterfully (66% on average) and was champion. In 2014, with a similar formula, it fell in the first phase.
Possession often describes how a team plays, but not necessarily how well it plays.
There is yet another nuance to consider. A study published in 2025 in the scientific magazine Sports, with data from the European Championship and the 2024 Copa América, showed that European teams tend to value possession of the ball more (in line with Spain and Portugal in this World Cup), while South American teams prefer quick transitions (also in line with data from Argentina and Brazil in this World Cup).
Despite this striking difference in style, ball possession had no statistically significant relationship with the number of goals in either tournament: both styles can be winners when executed well.
The same study cites that the fast form of South Americans tends to demand more physically from players, who need more explosion and speed (could this be part of the explanation for the injuries to Estêvão, Raphinha and even Neymar?).
Apart from the risk of injury, this seems to be the path for Carlo Ancelotti’s team. We will see how effective this style will be in the next games, which against Haiti benefited from yet another decisive performance by Vinicius Junior (who had direct participation in 3 of the team’s 4 goals in these first two games, a feat achieved by Brazilians in this century only by Rivaldo in 2002 and Elano in 2010, points out Opta).
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