The agreement between and , widely seen as a victory for Tehran, contains no mention of Iran’s ballistic missile program and other “red lines” that Donald Trump himself had set. The thorniest issue, Iran’s nukes, is referred to future negotiations. Washington’s “success” is that the Straits of Hormuz will be opened, but the passage will be free for only 60 days. The US president is criticized even by his own “camp” for giving a lot to Iran without getting anything in return.
Let’s look at the 14 paragraphs of the agreement one by one and what each of them means.
1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as their allies in the current war, sign this Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake henceforth not to initiate any war or military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force between them, ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final agreement will confirm the permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, as well as the other provisions of this paragraph.
The first paragraph is an “empty” of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who intended to continue the war in Lebanon alone. Although on Friday (19/6) Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire, Lebanon is one of the points that make the agreement between the US and Iran vulnerable because both Israel and Hezbollah can at any time shake it up. This paragraph is a victory for Tehran because it managed to connect the two wars, in Iran and in Lebanon.
2. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from any interference in its internal affairs.
Both sides have attempted to meddle in each other’s internal affairs, from regime overthrow to cyberwarfare. Time will tell if they stop this practice.
3. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, which may be extended by mutual consent.
Donald Trump has already hinted that the deadline could be extended. The 60-day window is very tight (previous negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program have taken years) but it is believed that the US president is in a hurry to present the final deal before November’s mid-term congressional elections.
4. Immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the US will begin to lift the naval blockade and any disruption or obstruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will completely end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, vessel traffic will be restored to pre-war levels by the Islamic Republic of Iran. In addition, the US undertakes to remove its forces located near the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days of reaching a final agreement.
With the lifting of the US naval blockade, Iran will be able to export oil products from its ports and resume earning revenue. The naval blockade has been an important lever of Washington’s pressure on Tehran, and by lifting it, the US loses a means of pressuring the Iranians not to stand in the way of a final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make every effort to make the necessary arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels free of charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of merchant ships will begin immediately and, taking into account the need to remove technical and military obstacles as well as demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be fully restored within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold a dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to determine the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in consultation with the other coastal states of the Persian Gulf, in accordance with international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s big defeat and Iran’s victory the key phrase “for 60 days only”. After that time, Iran will be able to charge for passage through the Straits of Hormuz, and this charge is a collateral loss to shipping since the passage was completely free before the war. Also, reference is made to the “Persian Gulf” while in recent decades the US has been calling it the “Gulf” taking a position in Iran’s dispute with the rest of the countries in the region who want it to be called the “Arabian Gulf”.
6. The United States undertakes, in cooperation with regional partners, to develop a definitive, mutually agreed upon plan of at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The implementation mechanism of this plan will be finalized in the final agreement within 60 days. All required licenses, exemptions and approvals necessary for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the US.
Trump assures that the US will not finance the reconstruction of Iran and that the money will come from the Persian Gulf monarchies. The issue is extremely sensitive for the US president’s electoral base.
7. The US undertakes to end all sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including UN Security Council resolutions, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors decisions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, on a schedule to be decided under the final agreement. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the US recognize the critical importance of the lifting of sanctions and express their intention to address it directly during negotiations in order to reach a mutual agreement.
The lifting of sanctions is a means of pressure – the only one left on the US – to persuade Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the issue of the disposal of their stockpiles of enriched nuclear material through a mutually agreed upon mechanism, in accordance with the timetable in paragraph 7, with a minimum requirement that the level of enrichment within Iran be reduced under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The two sides also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed issues related to the nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, on the basis of a satisfactory framework to be decided in the final agreement. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The US and the Islamic Republic of Iran recognize the critical importance of the above-mentioned nuclear issues and express their intention to address them directly in negotiations to reach a mutual agreement.
It is considered the most important paragraph because it is the only one that directly refers to Iran’s nuclear weapons. It is unclear why the nuclear issue is entirely relegated to the final agreement. That paragraph requires Tehran to de-enrich 60% enriched uranium (just below what is needed for nuclear weapons) but no talk of whether that material will remain in the country, what will happen to Iran’s nuclear reactors, what the oversight mechanism will be – all very difficult issues to be agreed upon in the next 60 days. The phrase “nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran” is critical because it is a victory for Tehran as it allows it to maintain a nuclear program for peaceful purposes (eg energy production), effectively keeping its nuclear facilities “combatable”.
9. Until a final agreement is reached, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status of its nuclear program and the US will not impose new sanctions or deploy additional forces to the region.
For Iran, this paragraph means that it cannot repair its bombed nuclear facilities or try to extract the uranium that is “trapped” under the rubble.
10. The US undertakes that, immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding and until the full lifting of sanctions, the US Department of the Treasury will issue the necessary waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and their derivatives, as well as for all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, etc.
The “exemptions” concern sanctions against those who do business with Iran, that is, they pave the way for the sale of Iranian oil internationally. This paragraph particularly angers US hawks who believe that Trump has given Tehran “land and water” to reopen the Straits of Hormuz before it has even achieved anything to limit its nuclear weapons.
11. The United States undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or frozen funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon implementation of this Memorandum of Understanding. The US and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on procedures for releasing these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether they remain in the original account or are transferred, will be fully available for payment to any final beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The US undertakes to issue all necessary permits and approvals.
The $24 billion that make up Iran’s “frozen” funds will soon – long before a final deal is reached – begin to flow to whoever and whatever Tehran decides, from military equipment to terrorist-related entities.
12. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an enforcement mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this Memorandum of Understanding and future compliance with the final agreement.
The supervision of the implementation of the agreed is one of the most important parts of the agreement.
13. After the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and subject to the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding and that the implementation of these measures continues, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will enter into negotiations regarding the final agreement solely on the other paragraphs.
The ceasefire in Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, the export of Iranian oil and the release of frozen Iranian funds are the measures that will begin to be implemented immediately. All are successes of Tehran.
14. The final agreement will be approved by a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.
If we get there, despite the doubts expressed by many, it will be a feat of hope.
