Projecting the knockout matches for the 2026 World Cup is more difficult than in other editions of the tournament. In part, due to the greater number of teams, but also due to the switching foreseen by FIFA.
There are 495 possible duel combinations for the 32-team phase, which precedes the round of 16.
The regulations say that the first place in Group E, for example, can play against the best third place in groups A, B, C, D or F.
Today, the dispute would involve Germany, ahead of E, and five other possible teams: Czech Republic, Bosnia, Scotland, Paraguay and Sweden.
Likewise, the leader of Group I faces the best third-placed team among groups C, D, F, G or H.
According to the current classification, the game could be between Norway —first in I— and Scotland, Paraguay, Sweden, New Zealand or Cape Verde.
Some intersections are easier to predict. This is the case of Groups C and F, for example. The rule defines that the first of C faces the second of F.
Today, the dispute would be between Brazil and Japan. The Moroccan team, however, has a chance of catching the Japanese in the next phase, if they overcome the Brazilians in the third round of the current stage.
In a less likely scenario, Scotland could play against Japan. To do so, they need to beat Brazil and hope for a victory for the already eliminated Haiti over Morocco.
TIEBREAKER CRITERIA
In the event of a tie in the scores of two or more teams in the group stage, FIFA establishes the following criteria to resolve the impasse: highest number of points in the direct confrontation between the teams; greater goal difference in the duel between the teams; and greater number of goals scored.
Next comes: goal difference totaling all matches in the group stage; highest number of goals scored in all group stage games; and the highest collective conduct score among the teams.
The collective conduct score takes into account the number of yellow cards (-1 point), indirect red cards (-3 points), direct red cards (-4 points) and yellow cards followed by direct red (-5 points) for the same player.
Indirect red cards refer to the second yellow card an athlete receives, resulting in their expulsion.
If the tie persists, the teams’ position in the FIFA general ranking will be taken into account — the advantage goes to the best placed team.
In the event of a tie between the eight best teams in third place, the criteria are: highest number of points in the group stage; highest goal difference in the group stage; highest number of goals scored in the group stage; higher collective conduct score; highest position in the FIFA general rankings.
CHANGES IN THE WORLD
For the first time, the World Cup has 48 teams, 72 games in the first phase and another 32 knockout stages.
Until 2022, the first two teams in each group advanced to the knockouts. The duels, in turn, were defined between the first in one group against the second placed in another.
In Qatar, for example, Brazil advanced as leader of Group G and faced South Korea, second in Group H, in the round of 16. On that occasion, Tite’s team won 4-1.
By adding 16 participants to the tournament, FIFA established that the eight best teams in third place in each group will advance to the knockout stage. As a result, it was necessary to add a round of elimination matches before the round of 16.
This is the last week of games in the group stage of the World Cup, and the knockout duels will begin next Sunday (28).
