I’m not a mathematician. I never wanted to be. I even like sports statistics and sometimes use them in the texts I produce, but all in a way that I consider understandable.
It doesn’t seem intelligible to me what FIFA came up with to determine the crosses for the first knockout phase (the one with 32 teams) for this bloated World Cup with 48 countries.
What complicates matters is where the eight third-placed teams will end up and will advance, along with the 12 first and 12 second-placed teams, to this knockout stage.
Mathematically, I don’t doubt what the federation establishes. There is a formula there. There are 495 possible combinations (crazy stuff), depending on which groups these eight third-placed teams will come from.
I don’t want to and I won’t try to explain. I don’t know.
What I know, what can be said without any doubt, and directly, is that, if Brazil takes third place in Group C – there is that chance, if they lose to Scotland this Wednesday (24) and Morocco at least draws with Haiti –, they will face the winner of Group A, Group E or Group I.
So, be sure of this: being third and ranking among the top eight, Brazil, under no circumstances, will face a duel in the 32nd round against Messi’s Argentina (if they win Group J), Lamine Yamal’s Spain (if they win Group H), Harry Kane’s England (if they triumph in Group L) or Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal (if they come first in Group K).
Ranking in the worst possible position in its group, the Brazilian team will challenge Mexico (first in Group A), at the Azteca stadium; or Germany (first in Group E), in the Boston arena; or whoever comes first in Group I (France or Norway), in East Rutherford, on the same stage as the 1-1 against Morocco, in their debut at this World Cup. This is also right.
In this way, the Brazil of Carletto Ancelotti, Vinicius Junior and company needs to do its best to avoid falling to the Scots in Miami Gardens.
Why? Because, coming third and being one of the eight best, they will face the host (with a fanatical crowd supporting them in the mythical stadium in Mexico City), or with the four-time world champion Germany (the one with 7-1), or with the two-time champion France (tormentor in other World Cups and with a very inspired Mbappé so far), or with Norway (from another very inspired team, Haaland, and the only team to have never lost to the Brazilian).
And why can it only be the leaders of Group A, Group E or Group I who cross paths with the third in Group C? I don’t know. The regulations determine it, period. Maybe one day someone will try to explain it (so that no one can understand, except, perhaps, mathematicians and statisticians).
But I offer something more, with 100% accuracy. The hypothetical match against Mexico will be on Tuesday (30), at 10 pm (Brasília time). Before France or Norway, on the same day, at 6 pm. And the Germans would be the opponents on Monday (29), at 5:30 pm.
Regarding the formula that affects third places, I believe that for us Brazilians, only what is exposed above matters.
I hope that it will not be necessary to consult this complexity again, at least not in relation to the Brazilian team.
It’s not difficult. A win or even a draw against Scotland will do the trick. Coming first in Group C, the cross will be against the second in Group F. Finishing second in C, the opponent is first in F.
And the opponent’s difficulty will be, with the exception of one of them, lower. Fighting for these places in Group F are the Netherlands (always strong, a “stick to stick” duel), Japan and Sweden, against which Brazil would be favorites.
Finishing at the top of the group, the Brazilian team will play on Monday, at 2 pm (Brasília time), in Houston. Coming in second place, he will go to Monterrey (Mexico) and take the field on Brazilian night (10pm).
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