The IPCA-15 (Broad National Consumer Price Index), a preview of inflation that will be released this Thursday (25), should show a slowdown in relation to the 0.62% advance of the previous month, with an increase that should be between 0,41% e 0,55%, according to experts consulted by CNN Money.
According to projections, the villains of the month should be the food at home group, with an expected increase of 1.35%, points out FGV (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) economist, André Braz, keeping the index high despite a slight slowdown compared to May.
Another point of attention is the housing group, with a projected increase of 0.91%, also contributing to keeping inflation at a high level, despite the slowdown.
However, it cannot yet be said that the decline in oil prices has alleviated inflation in Brazil.
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Traded on Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange), WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil for August closed down 3.92% (US$ 2.87), at US$ 70.34 per barrel, operating below US$ 70 at the intraday low.
The international reference, Brent oil for September, traded on the ICE (London Intercontinental Exchange), closed down 3.81% (US$2.93), at US$73.87 per barrel.
Looking at fuel prices, ethanol should be the main vector of decline, with a projected decline of -5.91% due to . Meanwhile, gasoline should show stability or a slight drop, so the transport group as a whole should be less negative than in the previous month.
However, experts point out that June’s IPCA-15 should still reflect the negative effects of previous increases, and any relief coming from the international price drop should only be felt in future indices.
Adriano Birle, economist responsible for analyzing fuels and plastic resins at GEP Brasil, reaffirms that June will still have the impact of the increase in oil and war, with stability in the price of gasoline, and a drop in ethanol.
On the other hand, he points out that the indirect impact of the increase in diesel is still expected to continue over the next few months.
“The price of diesel has stopped rising, but it is still significantly above what it was in February, for example. And this increase in diesel has a more medium-term impact on the IPCA through the transfer to freight costs, so it will still be absorbed in the IPCA, and we expect it to continue having an impact in the coming months, but then it would be more on the prices of food and consumer goods, mainly”, he explains.
Gino Olivares, chief economist at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, reinforces that, if there is any relief from Brent in fuel prices, it will be later.
“And we need to remember that,” he explains.
“So, if prices did not rise because of this intervention when the price rose, we should not have high expectations of price drops now that international fuel prices are falling”, he concludes.
