Brazil beat Scotland 3-0 and secured their 12th qualification for a World Cup. The team ended the phase in first place in Group C and optimism about the team’s performance spread among fans (and the market, especially with the SBF).
With the classification, the search for national team t-shirts continues to heat up — a great sign for SBF (), owner of Centauro and marketer of Nike in Brazil. According to the XP Investimentos analysis team, the strong demand for the shirts should sustain a robust second quarter for the company.
The house’s expectation, which was already considered during this period, is an increase of potentially R$350 million in sales in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. For this reason, XP also maintained its buy recommendation, reflecting the strong earnings momentum given solid demand.
Even though the ranking boosted the search for t-shirts, XP highlights that slightly higher sales expenses could pull performance back. These costs arise from the next labor legislation.
For this reason, analysts made some adjustments to SBF’s estimates for 2026. In addition to cutting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimated for 2027, XP also reduced net profit by 12–13%.
Most importantly, the house reduced the share target price to R$16.0, against R$20.0 previously.
Out of stock
According to the Brazilian National Team Shirt Availability Monitor, which only covers the digital channel, stocks remain exhausted, with slow replacement.
The men’s player version shirt (alternative for R$750), for example, is still unavailable in S/M/L on Nike’s DTC channel and at Centauro. At the same time, Centauro’s CBF shirt (its cheapest option) remains completely out of stock, for both men and women.
According to monitoring, key models were restocked last week and, even so, some models are already out of stock this week. For analysts, this indicates strong consumer demand, which could be boosted by the recent victory.
Continues after advertising
Even Jordan (the blue version), which remains available in most channels, sizes and genders, has shown initial signs of disruption. This increase in demand, according to XP, may be linked to the recent shortage of yellow models.
