The bargain has begun but no one knows when and how it will end. A lot could happen in the Gulf, the Middle East and the US in the seven weeks left to end the war and settle the conflict. A resurgence cannot be ruled out from a possible collapse of the talks, from a strong Israeli reaction, from provocations, from a “misunderstanding” or even from a random event. However, none of the two sides seem at the moment willing to escalate further, although the Lebanese front remains open.
The deadline set by the Memorandum co-signed by Presidents Trump and Pezheskian expires on August 21, two and a half months before the American elections for the renewal of Congress. Since President Trump put the brakes on the attack considering the economic and political cost to the US, his party and himself, it is considered unlikely that he will repeat it when the congressional elections are closer and the risk is even greater.
Trump’s room for maneuver narrowed further after yesterday’s historic Senate resolution to end military operations against Iran. By a vote of 50 to 48, the Senate adopted the proposal approved earlier this month by the House of Representatives (215 to 208). The narrow governing majorities in both houses of Congress were overturned when a small but critical number of Republican congressmen and senators opposed Trump’s policies. “Now that I’ve cornered Iran, they want to tie my hands,” the US president claimed, accusing Republican “rebels” and his Democratic opponents of harming the national interest.
In practice, these resolutions cannot directly overturn government policy. President Trump retains the right of veto, while to overcome the presidential veto, new votes will have to be held in both Houses and two-thirds majorities must be secured in each, which is considered impossible based on the current composition of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But the political message from the votes in Congress was clear and reveals the division within the Republican Party caused by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, which took place on February 28. The big words of Trump and Netanyahu were disproved, the Tehran regime despite the losses endured and is now negotiating with Washington the trade-offs in order to put an end to its nuclear ambitions. In polls, two out of three Americans oppose the war on Iran.
Normally, under the US Constitution, only Congress has the authority to declare war, but the rule has been circumvented for decades. American law allows the president of the country to order hostilities in exceptional cases, but it also provides that the president must request and receive approval from Congress within 60 days, while providing for an extension of another month for reasons of national security (a total of 90 days).
The White House believes that with the cease-fire that went into effect on April 7, the timer has been reset since there are typically no hostilities from which US troops would have to withdraw. Of course, in practice, more than 50,000 American soldiers are on operational alert in the wider Gulf region. US troops, air force and navy will remain in this status until at least the end of August when the deadline of the US-Iran Memorandum expires and it is unknown what will happen next.
Meanwhile, the bill for the war keeps mounting. On the same day as the Senate vote, the Pentagon asked Congress for an additional $80 billion in funding, mostly to cover war spending in Iran. That amount is on top of the $1.5 trillion spending spree in the Trump administration’s 2027 budget plan. The 44 percent increase in military spending over the previous year is accompanied by a 10 percent cut in “non-defense programs.”
“Now we’re at war, we can’t deal with health care, Medicaid, Medicare and all these things that can be done at the state level, not at the federal level,” Trump reportedly said in early April, when the Iran war was in its fifth week. The November 3 congressional elections will be held in the shadow of war and negotiations with Iran, but will be judged by the impact on the daily lives of Americans.
