BTG/Nexus research released this Monday (29) shows that the president Lula (PT) leader voting intentions for the 2026 presidential election in the scenarios of first e second shifts contra the senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL).
In the first scenario stimulated for the first round, Lula appears with 42% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, who adds 34%. Next, the former governor of Goiás appears Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) e Renan Santos (Mission) with 5% e 4% respectively. The former head of the Executive of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (NEW) has 3%.
In a second tested scenario, with only the presence of Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, Caiado, Zema and former STF minister Joaquim Barbosa, the current president maintains the lead with 42%while the son of former president Bolsonaro registers 35%.
In a simulation of second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the survey indicates that the current president would win the dispute with 47% of votes. The senator appears with 44%.
Lula also leads all other second-round scenarios that the survey tested. Against Zema, the current president appears with 48%while the miner has 38%.
Against Caiado, Lula appears with 47%while Goiano has 39%. In the duel against Renan Santos, the current president has 48%contra 36%.
The survey interviewed 2,009 voters between June 26th and 28th. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-08521/2026.
