Hormuz and oil have once again marked the pulse of the markets in a quarter that ended with strong contrasts: while the brent chaining a collapse of close to 40%, the stock markets are in their best period since the pandemic, with the Ibex 35 advancing 14%. In this context, as expectations of a short conflict faded and crude oil reserves were rapidly reduced, energy prices rebounded and, with them, fears of a stagflation scenario resurfaced. As last year demonstrated with the trade war, with Donald Trump anything is possible. But this time the risk of encystment was greater. Adding to the unpredictability of the White House was an equally volatile actor: Iran. , and with international organizations redoubling their calls for understanding, investors followed the negotiations between Washington and Tehran with the utmost attention.
The agreement came in stoppage time, in mid-June, so that activity could return to the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a greater impact on the global economy that could lead to recession. Although the stock markets had already been showing unusual strength, it was the preliminary agreement of June 14 that was the true catalyst that triggered the oil correction and a new bullish leg for stocks.
At the minimum, the brent It does not manage to close the month below the pre-crisis levels ——, but it chained a drop of more than 20% in June, the largest since March 2020. Then, the shock of the pandemic, the abrupt stoppage of activity and the confinements plummeted crude oil by 55%. In the quarterly balance, the decline reaches 38%, a major correction, although still far from the 65.5% registered at the start of 2020, when the economy, markets and society were facing an unprecedented scenario.
The oil turnaround also marked the pace of the stock markets. As energy prices retreated from peaks, appetite for equities gained traction. “Each escalation in the conflict has pushed investors towards defensive positions, but each step back from the precipice has quickly restored risk appetite. The market cuts have been interpreted as a sign of entry and not a change in trend,” says Alberto Blanco, professor of the Master of Stock Market and Financial Markets at the IEB.
Against this backdrop and the promises of an end to hostilities, investors accelerated their stock purchases, although in the last session of the month caution prevailed and many opted to readjust portfolios before facing the second half of the year. All in all, the Ibex 35 gained 14% in the semester, its best record since the end of 2020, when the deployment of the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines opened the way to normalization after the health shock.
The Spanish stock market is no exception. The movement is repeated on both sides of the Atlantic and points to a common pattern: the main indices are having their best quarter since that market turnaround that followed the covid collapse. The Stoxx 600 advances around 10%, the Italian Mib leads with a rise of 16.5% – the largest in more than five years – and the rest of the European markets move within a range that goes from 13% of the Euro Stoxx 50 to a more moderate 7% of the French Cac.
Not even the doubts of recent days about the technology sector have altered that balance. , the Nasdaq manages to recover and closes the quarter with a rise of 20.8%, also at levels not seen since the end of 2020. The recovery of technology companies in the last two sessions has also been felt in the Dow Jones: the entry of Alphabet at the beginning of the week has propelled the index to reach its second consecutive maximum. More than an isolated anomaly, the market thus returns to a pace of progress that had only been recorded at times of strong inflection of the cycle. “The second half is presented as a validation test for a market that has arrived with demanding valuations, high profit expectations and a growth narrative heavily supported by AI. The margin of error is very limited,” say Macroyield analysts.
Behind the market’s optimism lies a complacency that worries many investors. While Blanco warns that stock markets at record levels are not necessarily a sign of strength, Pilar Aranda, Bankinter analyst, anticipates that the plummet in oil will not eliminate underlying tensions: prices will continue to be volatile and uncertainty will set the pace. “We will see episodes like the current one, with prices below the beginning of the contest, but in a context of insufficient supply compared to demand, it is foreseeable that the tension will persist,” he points out. The expert places Brent at around $85 at the end of the year.
Warren Patterson, an ING analyst, moves along the same lines, considering that, with oil at around $70, . “The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran is being interpreted as if it were permanent, even though the situation remains unstable and can change quickly. Reaching that agreement was already complex and closing a definitive one – especially on the nuclear issue – in a short period of time seems unrealistic,” he adds.
Looking ahead to the coming months, the consensus remains moderately optimistic. Bankinter is among the most positive entities and gives the Ibex 35 a potential of 15% in 18 months, up to 22,328 points, while for the S&P 500 it foresees increases of up to 30%. “The upward revision of corporate profits results in higher stock market valuations, which once again offer comfortable potential,” they point out in their latest report. Blanco is more moderate, anticipating a more selective advance as the most likely scenario. “For now, investors continue to buy the future. The risk is that they are paying less and less attention to the price they pay for it,” he maintains.
Among the main risks in the short and medium term, Bankinter analysts point to a scenario of higher interest rates, an eventual shift in the geostrategy with the situation in the Middle East as the main source of volatility and excess optimism regarding IPOs linked to AI. In this sense, the entity considers that the ECB has acted with some haste in monetary tightening and, with inflation moderating, they expect the Federal Reserve to keep the price of money unchanged. Ramón Forcada, director of analysis and markets at Bankinter, positively values the postponement of OpenAI’s IPO until 2027. “The entry into the market of companies that do not generate profits, but achieve high valuations, would introduce more risk. If it is delayed, the better,” he points out.
The moderation of inflation in recent days and the more moderate tone that the president of the ECB is beginning to show are helping to calm expectations of rate increases. The combination of lower inflation and unchanged rate prospects is helping to contain the rally in yields. The profitability of the 10-year Spanish debt ends the quarter at 3.3%, unchanged compared to the end of 2025. For its part, the German reference for the same term remains anchored at 2.8% with the American one at 4.4%, slightly above the end of the previous year.
However, the start of summer introduces a new factor of uncertainty. The drop in trading volumes typical of the summer months usually amplifies market movements, turning any news into a catalyst for abrupt swings. In a context still marked by geopolitical fragility and demanding valuations, lower liquidity opens the door to episodes of more pronounced volatility, testing the solidity of the rally and the ability of investors to sustain their risk appetite.
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