Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has soared in recent weeks, with U.S. military support helping to boost the flow of oil to more than 10 million barrels a day, a U.S. official said.
The increase since President Donald Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran represents a sharp increase in traffic after the war paralyzed flows. This caught Tehran by surprise, highlighting its now more limited ability to disrupt circulation through the corridor and helping to trigger recent attacks in the strait region, said the official, who requested anonymity to describe internal assessments.
The Islamic Republic gained bargaining power by strangling the strait during the conflict, which encouraged Trump to adhere to a ceasefire and negotiations, amid falling oil reserves and soaring energy prices, factors that made the war politically unsustainable. The regime, however, continues to insist that it will maintain some control over maritime traffic, even signaling that some ships may have to pay passage fees.
Even before the truce, the US had already been taking measures to weaken Tehran’s control over the strait. Layers of defensive military support coordinated by U.S. Central Command, including air power and naval forces, have given carriers more confidence in moving oil through the southern portion of the waterway, closer to Oman, the official said.
The number of 10 million is, generally speaking, in line with navigation data already reported by Bloomberg.
Navigation in the strait hangs over this week’s indirect negotiations in Qatar, in which American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are taking part. The fate of Iran’s nuclear capacity and the possibility of the country controlling traffic through Hormuz are at the center of discussions.
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According to the official, the US is pressuring Iran to comply with the maritime clauses of the memorandum of understanding and to sign a long-term agreement that guarantees free trade circulation. The memorandum provides for toll-free traffic during the 60-day negotiation period, leaving open what will happen after that. Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have already said that both tolls and fees for maritime services would be unacceptable in a final agreement.
Iran has not publicly accepted American demands for the strait.
Last week, Iran violated measures negotiated with the US by launching a drone attack on a Singapore-flagged container ship. The episode triggered a wave of retaliatory attacks that shook the truce between the two countries.
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Trump’s decision to suspend further strikes and allow negotiations to continue was the latest sign that he is unwilling to run the risk of increasing the economic costs of the war. The American president has already said that he does not want to be remembered like Herbert Hoover, who occupied the White House at the time of the 1929 crash that triggered the Great Depression.
Analysts warn that these economic and political considerations could encourage Iran to drag out negotiations, potentially reducing Trump’s ability to force Tehran to make key concessions. The resumption of traffic through Hormuz represents more of a return to the status quo prior to the war launched by the USA and Israel than a new diplomatic advance.
Still, the US government sees last week’s attacks as evidence that Tehran is trying to reassert its control over the strait after realizing its ability to halt traffic is limited, according to the official.
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Iran’s restricted ability to monitor traffic away from its coastline has also hampered its perception of movement in the southern transit corridor, which has led to a relatively late realization of the scale of oil flows in the region, the official said.
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, with an average daily flow of about 20 million barrels of crude oil and fuels. Now, with at least 10 million barrels per day returning through the strait, plus 5 million through alternative routes, the flow is approaching normal levels.
Still, getting Iran to back down from its ambition to control the strait will not be simple. Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, told state TV on Tuesday that sovereignty over the corridor belongs to Iran and Oman. Although Oman’s top diplomat has stated that plans for Hormuz do not involve charging “transit fees,” the country has informed European authorities that some charges may be necessary, according to a report by Bloomberg.
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Shipping companies, oil industry executives and other market players warn that any toll — or fees disguised under any other name — constitutes an unacceptable violation of international law and would set a dangerous precedent, with the potential to encourage similar charges on other shipping routes.
Even after the side-by-side attacks, vessels continued to pass through the strait, a sign of increased confidence in the U.S. stance and Iran’s limited reach. The continued flow may also have been driven by the expectation that Tehran would avoid attacks with catastrophic ecological consequences, the U.S. official said.
In last week’s attack on the cargo ship, for example, the bridge was damaged but there were no casualties, allowing the vessel to continue its journey.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
