Report brings lower expectation for inflation from 5.55% to 5.53% this year; estimate follows above the target ceiling of 4.5%
The Focus Bulletin released on Monday (5.MAI.2025) by the BC (Central Bank) brought a low revision for inflation and interest rate this year. Still, it maintained stable estimates for the economic scenario in 2026. Read the full ( – 913 KB).
Selic, the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, went from 15% to 14.75% AA in 2025. Estimates for 2026 maintained the rate by 12.5% according to economists and financial institutions consulted for the preparation of the report.
The Selic rate is seen as a thermometer that indicates whether there is a tendency for inflation or economic recession. On March 19, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) set the Selic rate by 14.25% AA the next Copom meeting is scheduled for this week on the 6th and 7th.
Since April, BC members have been using the words “uncertainty ”,“ caution” e “flexibility” to indicate as defined the Selic rate at this next Copom meeting.
For inflation, measured by the variation of the IPCA (broad consumer price index), the Focus Bulletin brought a 5.55% to 5.53% reduction review this year and maintained the projection to 2026 by 4.51%, as indicated in the previous report. Even in tolerance, the forecast is above the goal.
The goal of inflation, defined by CMN (National Monetary Council), of the BC, is 3% with a tolerance interval of 1.50 percentage point and plus 1.50 percentage point, ie, from 1.50% to 4,50%.
The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in Brazil had estimates maintained 2% to 2025 and 1.7% to 2026.
In the exchange rate, the Focus Bulletin estimates for the dollar at the end of 2025 were from $ 5.90 to $ 5.86. For 2026, the projection went from $ 5.95 to $ 5.91.
The Focus Bulletin is published weekly and brings together predictions of financial market analysts on the country’s main economic indicators.
