President of the United States of America again insisted that the key to ending the war in Ukraine is in oil. At a press conference alongside British Prime Minister Keir Stmermer, Donald Trump argued that “if the price of oil goes down, Putin will give up. He will not have another choice.”
The idea is not new in the speech of the president of the United States. On Saturday, I had already launched an ultimatum to NATO countries to stop buying Russian oil, promising only when the highly acting block acting.
Now, and with the UK Prime Minister next door, referring to that it may be the true way to make Vladimir Putin “give up” from war. Francisco Pereira Coutinho, an international relations specialist, acknowledges that the US president may be right in the diagnosis, but argues that the solution “is not that simple.”
From the expert’s perspective, Moscow’s war effort depends strongly on oil recipes. Not only because they finance weaponry and logistics, but because they support Putin’s internal strategy to keep the population relatively passive.
“The regime has been able to avoid social seizures because there is no forced mobilization. Soldiers will fight for money and die for money. But this is because there are colossal financial incentives: recruitment prizes that can reach $ 60,000, salaries ten times higher than Russian average and additional bonus paid for combat objectives.”
That is, there is an “internal mercenarism” that works because Kremlin has easy money from oil. “It is a very expensive, unsustainable model in the long run, but it works as long as there are extraordinary revenues,” says Francisco Pereira Coutinho.
The Russian budgetary situation is changing rapidly. According to the expert, the country currently presents a “huge public deficit”, without access to external financing. This means that oil recipes are even more vital to maintaining the war effort.
“A significant break in the price of oil can force Putin to rethink the war. You will have to make difficult and unpopular decisions, such as advancing compulsive mobilization and this would greatly weaken its internal position. Russia has a shelf life to maintain this kind of military effort. They can’t keep this model of war indefinitely,” he warns.
The misconception of Trump’s strategy
Donald Trump argues that the swim should cut the purchase of Russian block oil, ensuring that this would force Moscow to give in. However, according to Francisco Pereira Coutinho, this logic ignores the way the global energy market works.
“The price of oil is not low because we buy less. Low when there is more oil available on the market. That is, it is not enough to stop buying Russia. It would be necessary for other large producers, such as the United States or Saudi Arabia, for example, to increase production substantially in a strategy of flooding the market,” he explains.
European dilemma: less gas, but still dependent on oil
Since 2021, the European Union has been dramatically reducing Russian gas from 40% to 11%, according to the latest. But with oil the statistics are different.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the European Union prohibited most of the Russian oil imports. However, it opened a temporary exception for the supply performed through the Druzhba Oleoduct – which caused one between Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia for a few weeks – to give rise to some central European countries to look for new energy sources. After three years, Hungary and Slovakia have not yet adhered to this transition.
“They continue to buy because it is cheaper and have no moral problem to continue to do so. Not only are they not ideologically aligned with the European Union, but they have an economic advantage here,” says Francisco Pereira Coutinho.
According to it, in 2024, the European Union spent more on Russian fossil fuels than in financial support to Ukraine. During the third year of war, the block allocated 18.7 billion euros to help Kiev, but disbursed 21.9 billion in the purchase of oil and gas from the invading country.
In addition, China, India and Türkiye are increasingly absorbing Russian oil. China alone bought 42% of all Moscow exports in July this year. “This maintains high demand and prevents a break in prices. There had to be a concerted effort,” explains the expert heard by CNN Portugal.
Trump is right, but there is political cynicism
The US President claims to be willing to apply harsh sanctions to Russia, but only if European countries do the same. For Francisco Pereira Coutinho, there is a contradiction here.
“I do not believe in good faith. Trump will only apply measures if this is convenient. He does not want to bring a measure that may have vulnean effect on himself. And if he is using it as a thief weapon of the genre ‘I will only do if Europeans do’, knowing that Europeans have no way to solve this problem, it is a little cynical.
The strategy, concludes the expert, “is effective on paper, but hardly applied in practice.”
