Upheaval in the Sahel: jihadists and secessionists block the capital of Mali in search of the fall of the regime

The western Sahel, the semi-desert area considered the southern neighborhood of high interest for Spain, is experiencing a wave of growing violence and unpredictable consequences. The focus of greatest tension is right now in Little ones. The jihadist groups associated with Al Qaeda and the independentists with a Tuareg majority, who control the northeast of the country, win battle after battle against the government forces, who dominate the south and center, despite the support of Russian soldiers from the Africa Corps (the transformation of the Wagner militiasnow controlled by the Kremlin).

They no longer only conserve their territory, almost a third of the country, outside the control of the central government. They have gone on the offensive and have set their eyes on the capital, Bamako. Not so much to take it militarily; That would be suicide, according to the analysts consulted. What they intend is to suffocate it and, thereby, weaken the military junta that has governed the country for five years. They are carrying out dozens of attacks against convoys of fuel and other materials that connect Bamako (about three million inhabitants) and causing shortages, blackouts, confusion and chaos.

“JNIM is not looking for a frontal assault on Bamako to control it: it neither has sufficient capabilities nor is it in line with its usual strategy,” the specialist explains to EL PERIÓDICO. Bakary kara sambe yeabe from the Timbuktu Institute -African Center for Peace Studies. “He wants the Government to collapse from within. The group has learned from past failures and has opted for gradual asphyxiation, a war of economic and political attrition that delegitimizes the regime without exposing itself to a conventional battle, which it would lose.”

Fear in the European chancelleries

The latest events have put Western foreign ministries on alert. The United States, Germany or Italy have asked their citizens to leave, if possible. Spain has registered 1,114 Spaniards, almost all residents and the majority of dual nationality, according to data updated this Monday given by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to this newspaper. It is recommended that “consider leaving temporarily”. A massive evacuation operation in the coming days cannot be ruled out.

There is also fear of fear among the civilian population. Nearly half of the arrivals to the Canary Islands in cayuco are from Malians.

In Western media such as the FT, people are already beginning to talk about the possibility of a “caliphate at the gates of Europe”something very far from reality for experts like Beatriz de Mesapolitical scientist, journalist and author of The Failure of the West in Africa.

Objective: fuel and supply convoys

In 2025, insurgents have been hitting the economic epicenters of Malito weaken the military junta. They have carried out kidnappings at the cement factory in the city of Kayes, in the west of the country. There have been at least six coordinated attacks on Chinese gold mines and another on the Bougouni lithium mine.

But the strategy of economic wear It is focusing, above all, on the blockades on the supply routes from Senegal or the Ivory Coast to the capital (Bamako-Kayes or Bamako-Sikasso). In the capital there are long lines to fill vehicles with fuel. Chaos could soon break out.

“The Kayes region is not a random choice for JNIM: it is the gold producing heart of Maliwhich represents 80% of the total mineral production, and a vital corridor to the port of Dakar. By striking there, JNIM is not only potentially grabbing gold; “It is paralyzing an entire supply chain,” explains Sambe. “Every stoppage in production, every blocked convoy, every ransom paid is a direct loss for the State (mining royalties), an increase in costs for companies (private security, insurance) and a message to investors: Mali is no longer viable.”

They reduce the export income and cause a scare in direct investment from China and Russia. They thus expose to the local population that the Government has failed in its promise to provide security and economic sovereignty.

Mali is led by General Assimi Goitawhich carried out coups d’état in 2020 and 2021. Its anti-European rhetoric culminated in the departure of the French army in 2022, after a decade of fighting against the jihadists, and of the blue helmets of the MINUSMA mission in 2023. Since then, everything has gotten worse.

The “road cutters”

After the beginning of its mission in the area in 2013, France negotiated with the Tuareg who are seeking their own state, Azawad. Thus, de facto, he had neutralized them, to focus on the war against the jihadists.

But Goita and the Wagner mercenary group (now Áfrika Korps) decided to take the military route exclusively. “Now, all the groups confronted with the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) They have reunited, as they had done in 2012, after the disappearance of the French army and other security agents,” says Beatriz de Mesa.

Started over, but with a substantial change.

“The jihadist armed groups and secessionist armed groups are attacking in an area far from their bases. The so-calleds’ road cutters‘They arrive with well-armed men and coches 4×4“, and they attack in highly populated areas where they do not have popular support,” analyzes De Mesa. “As the FAMa are concentrated in the northern and central parts, they have been caught by surprise in those remote areas.”

Mali is a huge country, almost three times larger than Spain, and poorly communicated.

“You chose the wrong partner”

One of the possible objectives of the insurgents would be to soften up and get Goita to negotiate. But the violence that has been undertaken has been of such caliber that perhaps that point has already been surpassed, notes de Mesa. The military options are now a counteroffensive by the FAMa with the Africa Corpsor a implosion of the regime if the situation in the capital worsens.

But it is clear that the Junta Government did not make the appropriate decision by expelling the European and UN forces, a formal army that was accompanied by political measures, by the brute force of the Russian militias.

“It is a window of opportunity for France to send a message to the Sahel: Without us you are not capable, you chose the wrong partner”concludes de Mesa.

New European strategy

In this context, the European Union remains disunited and largely oblivious to the hotbed of violence, migration and organized crime that is the Sahel. Brussels is focused on rearmament and the Russian threat. The Commission has recognized its failure in the region, and is working to make amends.

The new special representative of the European Union for the Sahel, João Cravinho, has been traveling to the region for months and meeting with the military authorities of Níger, mali y burkina fasor, but also with those of Senegal or Mauritania, as he told this newspaper in an interview last May.

Prepare a new approach strategy towards the region, which is based on the fundamental idea that we must negotiate with the military junta despite its human rights violations to stabilize the region.

The forecast is that it will be presented in the November Council of Foreign Ministersaccording to European diplomatic sources report, as long as the Ukraine or Gaza dossiers, always more urgent, do not monopolize the agenda. The goal is to have a kind of roadmap approved by the end of the year.