The private credit market is experiencing a moment of global attention with the end of the era of cheap money. After years of expansion, the sector is now feeling the direct impact of high interest rates and corporate debt, raising doubts about the sustainability of this model in the current scenario.
According to the investor and founder of Oaktree Capital, a global reference in cycle analysis and risk management, the fundamentals of this type of investment are more fragile and many investors continue to prioritize returns without adequately considering the risks.
Since the 2008 crisis, it has been driven by the exit of traditional banks and the advancement of structures such as direct lending, says Howard Marks.
Therefore, the search for high yield ended up leading to less careful decisions on the part of investors.
The topic was highlighted on the board “Insights of the Week”yes Money Review this week by presenter Bernardo Pascowitch.
Despite the warning, Marks does not foresee an immediate collapse. Still, it highlights that the increase in risk could gain strength amid global tensions and high interest rates, acting as a pressure factor for a slowdown in the economy.
For Pascowitch, the main point is the mismatch between risk perception and reality.
“The American investor, today, is not seeing the credit risk. There was a high growth in this market and many investors entered as if there was no risk. With the global scenario more tense, this bill could arrive”, he states.
Insights of the Week
In addition to the warning about private credit, two relevant issues sparked the debate among presenters this week.
Marilia Fontes, fixed income specialist, analyzes , based on a study by Harvard University.
According to her, technology has the potential to increase productivity, but it does not replace consolidated knowledge.
“AI helps those who already know a lot to produce more. But it doesn’t transform someone with no experience into an expert and it doesn’t replace the professional consultant”, he explains.
Thiago Godoy, the “Financial Daddy”, highlighted the indebtedness scenario of 80% of Brazilian families and the
The presenter notes that the moment could be an opportunity for financial reorganization, as long as there is a strategy.
“The first step is to classify your debts. Prioritize the most expensive ones, such as credit cards, but do not forget to pay the most important ones, such as the mortgage, for example. Otherwise, the risk could be even greater”, he warns.
Money Review
Carried out with the support of B3 and investment manager BlackRock, the program is presented by Marilia Fontes, founding partner of Nord Investimentos; Thiago Godoy, the “Finance Daddy”; Bernardo Pascowitch, founder and CEO of Yubb, proposes a light, direct and uncomplicated approach to topics related to financial education and investments. The attraction addresses the main economic topics every week with the informality of a conversation between friends — without compromising on analysis.
The Money Review airs every Friday, at 7pm, on the channel CNN Money on YouTube and on Sundays at 3pm on CNN Brazil.
