Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani in New York: he will be the first Muslim and socialist mayor.
Below we analyze his victory with the key graphics.
A comfortable victory
Mamdani has obtained more than a million votes, 50% of the available ballots, and has won by nine points over fellow Democrat Andrew Cuomo (41%), whom he defeated in the party’s primaries and who later decided to run as an independent. Republican Curtis Sliwa, without the support of his party or Trumpism, remains at 7%.
With 97% of the votes counted, the data confirms that there were no surprises. In the Polymarket prediction market this Tuesday they gave Mamdani a 92% chance of victory. The polls gave him the winner with 46% of the votes and he finally achieved at least 4 more points.
Winner in each district
Mamdani won four of the city’s five counties. He achieved, which was presumed his fiefdom, with 57% of the votes. In Manhattan and the Bronx he got more than 50% of the ballots. He could not prevail in Staten Island, where Cuomo won with 55% of the votes. This island, where the independent has now prevailed, was Republican territory: four years ago Curtis Sliwa had won with more than 60%.
The detailed results indicate that Mamdani has managed to win in the most diverse neighborhoods of the city, those with a majority of black, Asian and Hispanic populations. Cuomo has been the favorite especially in areas with white residents.
A participation not seen in 20 years
Mamdani’s is one of the recent ones. When he ran for mayor a year ago, Mamdani was just a member of the State Assembly from Albany whom few in New York knew. In January, prediction markets gave him an 8% chance of winning.
The popularity of the leftist candidate appears to have boosted turnout. More than two million New Yorkers voted this Tuesday, almost double the number four years ago. It is the highest participation in twenty years and everything indicates that it has been, above all, young people who have turned out to vote more than in other elections.
Mamdani does not convince all democrats
A peculiarity of the election is that there were two Democrats among the candidates. That explains why Mamdani has only achieved 60% of the votes of New Yorkers who in 2024 voted for Kamala Harris in the presidential election. Another 36% voted for Cuomo. It is evidence of the division within the Democratic Party, between its left wing and its more moderate wing.
Trump’s 2024 voters would have been split nearly down the middle between Republican nominee Sliwa and moderate Democrat Cuomo. This success for Cuomo is not enough for a simple reason: in New York only 19% of voters declare themselves Republicans.
Young people, key for Mamdani
Mamdani would have achieved 62% of the votes of young people under 30 years of age and more than 50% between 30 and 44 years of age. On the other hand, among those over 65 years of age it barely exceeds 29%.
Symmetrically, Cuomo’s support grows strongly with age.
On the other hand, Mamdani would have a masculinized electorate. According to data from the latest AtlasIntel survey, 51% of men would have voted for the Democrat, but only 37% of women.
A candidate for minorities
Mamdani has won among all racial groups except whites. 59% of the city’s Asians — twice as many as Cuomo —, 48% of blacks and 45% of Hispanics intended to vote for him. However, Cuomo would have prevailed among whites, with 45% of support, compared to Mandani’s 37%.
There is no income gap
Mamdani has campaigned saying he wants to reduce the cost of living and make New York “affordable.” His campaign repeats three points: “Freeze rents, and make free buses and daycare available to neighbors.”
But this has not prevented Mamdani’s support from being transversal by income. According to the latest AtlasIntel survey, 44% of New Yorkers with low incomes (less than $50,000), 36% with middle incomes, and up to 48% of those with the highest incomes (over $100,000) would have voted for the Democrat.
