BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports saw an unexpected drop in October after months of anticipated requests from the United States to circumvent tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, highlighting the industrial powerhouse’s dependence on American consumers even as it seeks to attract buyers in other markets.
The world’s second-largest economy has worked hard to diversify its export markets since Trump won last November’s presidential election, preparing for a resumption of the trade war that dominated his first term and seeking closer trade ties with Southeast Asia and the European Union.
But no other country comes close to matching China’s annual sales of more than $400 billion in goods to the U.S., a loss that economists estimate has reduced China’s export growth by about 2 percentage points, or roughly 0.3% of GDP.
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October customs data released on Friday reinforced that point, as China’s exports declined 1.1%, the worst performance since February, reversing the 8.3% increase recorded in September and falling short of the 3.0% growth forecast in a Reuters poll.
“It appears that the rush to ship goods to the US before the tariff hike slowed down in October,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Baoyin Capital Management.
“With export momentum now slowing, China may need to rely more on domestic demand.”
The data reveals that Chinese exports to the US fell 25.17% year-on-year, while exports to the European Union and Southeast Asian economies grew just 0.9% and 11.0%, respectively.
Most analysts largely agree that Chinese manufacturers have already shipped as many products to the world as possible for now.
“I think the PMI was already warning us that Chinese exports can’t keep growing forever, and not just because of the US, but because the global economy is slowing,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.
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‘Vietnam’s exports to the US will slow once front-loading ends, and we are getting there. So I think the fourth quarter will be much more difficult for China, which means the first half of 2026 will also be more difficult,’ he added.
The Chinese yuan fell slightly against the dollar after the data was released, recording its first weekly decline in a month.
