Default among agribusiness customers, which was contributed by “opportunistic situations” that were taken advantage of to encourage requests for judicial recovery from companies in the sector, has already reached its peak and should begin to fall in the first half of 2026, according to Carlos Antônio Vieira, president of Caixa Econômica Federal, who spoke exclusively to InfoMoney Interview.
Vieira compared the current situation to what happened in the Brazilian real estate market around 15 years ago, when excess liquidity led to disorderly investments and financial difficulties. According to the executive, agribusiness went through a period of credit expansion that, in part, resulted in excess financing intended for the formation of economic assets, which require time to mature.
Still, according to Vieira, the situation was worsened by opportunists who encourage requests for judicial recovery. “Yes, we have a problem to discuss today, in addition to other related aspects, which are opportunistic situations [criadas] by those who do not want the best for Brazil and who are calling on these companies to enter the judicial recovery process. This is bad for everyone,” said Vieira.
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Recently, the president of , Tarciana Medeiros, stated that law firms were encouraging requests for judicial recovery focused on the bank, classifying the situation as predatory litigation and studying legal measures to combat the problem.
Despite the increase in default rates, Vieira believes that the curve is close to its peak and that the downward trend should begin at the beginning of 2026. “We are at the moment where, in the next phase, we will see it fall, believe me, from January or the first quarter of 2026”, he stated.
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Default in agriculture and litigation
Default rates in agribusiness have grown in federal public banks, such as Caixa, Banco do Brasil (BB), Banco do Nordeste (BNB) and Banco da Amazônia (Basa), reflecting climate and economic challenges faced by the sector. At Caixa, agribusiness default rates rose to 7.02% in the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 4.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, leading the bank to restrict credit to the sector.
At Banco do Brasil, the largest agribusiness financial agent with almost 50% market share, default rates in the segment reached 3.94% in the first half of 2025, compared to 1.32% a year earlier.
Experts point out that the main factors for the worsening are adverse weather events, such as excessive rain in the South and drought in the Northeast, in addition to the impact of the increase in the Selic rate, which reached 15% per year, increasing the cost of credit and putting pressure on producers’ payment capacity.
