The euphoria about comes with many question marks. , the Shiite arc that started in Lebanon, went through Syria and Iraq and ended in Iran is now “broken” and Syria will not be able to facilitate the supply of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. The future of the two Russian bases in the country, the naval base in Tartus and the air base in Latakia, is in doubt. Will those in power agree to come to some sort of deal with the Russians or throw them out?
The question mark Iran
Iran, the other power behind the , is an even more critical question mark: will it want to attempt a rapprochement with the US after the events of recent months in the region have weakened it? Or will Tehran conclude that all efforts to negotiate with Washington, where in a few weeks Donald Trump will take office, are futile, and turn more vigorously to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb?
The rebels in Syria’s administration
Another question mark is how the rebels who ousted Assad impressively quickly will rule Syria. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization, which emerged from al-Qaeda although in recent years distanced itself from it, has a jihadist past and an Islamist nature that do not leave room for much optimism. Its leader, Mohammed al-Jolani, has recently been trying to change his profile – he even gave an interview on American television wearing Western clothes – but many express doubts about his real intentions.
The Islamic State
Another question mark is whether in the power vacuum that will be created in Syria, the Islamic State will find an opportunity to recover. Washington is keen to avoid this eventuality, which is why it has bombed Islamic State targets in Syria in recent hours.
Biden’s thoughts
US President Joe Biden is considering whether or not to talk to al-Jolani, whose organization the State Department classifies as a terrorist organization. According to the American press, Washington has sent messages to the organization through Turkey to not include the Islamic State in the governance of Syria and has received a positive response.
The role of Turkey
Turkey, which has supported various opposition groups in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has always aimed to create a zone along the Syrian-Turkish border from which the Kurds would be excluded. The power vacuum in Syria can be exploited by Ankara to increase its influence in the country, especially with regard to the Kurds of northern Syria, who are, however, allies of the Americans and this can be a thorn in the American-Turkish relations.
The next day
The answers to the above questions, which will only be seen with time, will show whether yesterday’s overthrow of Assad will be the beginning of the reconstruction of a freer Syria or whether the country will sink into chaos, like Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.
