Iran announced on Monday that it had established direct communication with rebels in Syria’s new leadership, which toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of Tehran, after a blitzkrieg offensive on Sunday. According to the Reuters agency, this was stated by an unnamed representative of the Iranian leadership, who added that Iran is acting in this way in an effort to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the countries in question, writes TASR.
Reuters added that Tehran is worried about how the change in the power balance in Damascus will affect Iran’s influence in Syria. However, there is no panic, Iranian sources added to Reuters, adding that Tehran is looking for diplomatic ways to establish contact with the group of people in the new leadership of Syria whose “opinions are closer to Iran.”
An unfavorable scenario
“The main problem for Iran is whether Assad’s successor will push Syria out of Tehran’s sphere of influence,” another Iranian official said, adding that this is a scenario Iran wants to avoid.
Another senior official said Iran’s spiritual leaders, who have lost an important ally in Damascus and also face Republican Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, are also open to talks with Syria’s new leaders.
In the meantime, Tehran has reportedly established contacts with two groups within the new Syrian leadership. The level of this interaction will be evaluated in the coming days after a meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which is the highest security body in Iran.
Two of the Iranian officials said Tehran is also concerned that Trump does not use Assad’s ouster as leverage to intensify economic and political pressure on Iran.
Billion dollar support
Reuters recalled that Iran’s spiritual leaders spent billions of dollars to support Assad during the civil war that broke out in Syria in 2011, and also sent their Revolutionary Guards there – not only to keep this ally in power, but also to preserve the axis opposition to Israel and US influence in the Middle East.
Assad’s fall removed a vital link in Iran’s regional power chain – the territory of Syria served as a key transit route for Iran to supply weapons and finance its allies in the region, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah movement.
The lightning advance of the rebel alliance led by the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) – a former branch of the Islamist network al-Qaeda – represents one of the biggest reversals for the Middle East in recent generations, Reuters noted, adding that the fall of Assad also disappeared the stronghold , from which Iran and Russia exerted their influence in the Arab world.
