The president () is 10 points above the senator (-RJ) and the governor of , (Republicans), in 2026 second round scenarios for president, according to new Genial/Quaest research.
The PT member appears with 46% of voting intentions, while the son of the former president (PL) has 36%. In a confrontation with the head of the São Paulo Executive, Lula would win with 45% compared to Tarcísio’s 35%.
This is the first survey to be released after the senator was announced as his father’s candidate to run for President in his place.
In one of the first round scenarios, with Flávio and Tarcísio, the congressman comes out ahead of the former minister, with 23% compared to 10%.
The research was carried out between the 11th and 14th of December. There were 2,004 face-to-face interviews with Brazilians aged 16 or over. The estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%.
The president leads in the other tested scenarios: against the governors of Paraná, (); again); and Goiás, ().
Against the Paraná native, the advantage is also 10 points, with the same percentages as Tarcísio’s, 45% and 35%. In a dispute with Caiado, the difference is 11 points. The PT member would win with 44% compared to 33%. Zema would lose 12, from 45% to 33%.
Lula also comes out ahead in the first round scenarios. Flávio has between 21% and 27% of intentions, depending on who the other opposition candidate would be. In addition to Tarcísio with 10%, Ratinho appears with 13%; Zema, 6%; and Caiado, 4%.
Another name, that of the former minister (), has 8%. The survey also tested the names of Renan Santos (Mission) and Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy), which had less than 3% in all scenarios.
Assessment of the Lula government
The government’s disapproval remained stable in relation to the last survey, fluctuating within the margin of error from 50% to 49%. Approval, in turn, 47% to 48%, also within the margin of error. Of those interviewed, 3% did not respond or were unable to respond.
