The United States betting markets now see a chance of more than 70% of the North American government entering into a new shutdown by midnight on Sunday, the 14th. At 4:22 pm (Brasília time), at Polymarket, the chance of a shutdown over the weekend was 76%, while at Kalshi the expectation was 70%.
Congress has until Saturday night to avoid a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown, as the funding package approved earlier this month included a just two-week stopgap measure for DHS, funding it at 2025 levels through February 13.
Lawmakers have until that deadline to reach a deal on the full 2026 bill, agree to another stopgap measure to buy more time, or allow a shutdown that would affect a wide range of agencies under DHS jurisdiction.
Take advantage of the opportunity!
Republican and Democratic negotiators have not yet made significant progress in discussions, according to CNN sources.
