Son of the former president (), the senator (PL-RJ) has established himself as the president’s main opponent () for the 2026 elections, according to a new Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (11).
The PT member remains in the lead in all first round scenarios tested by the survey, with voting intentions between 35% and 39%. In all of them, Flávio comfortably secures second place, with percentages ranging from 29% to 33%.
The research was carried out from Thursday (5) to Monday (9). There were 2,004 interviews with Brazilians aged 16 or over. The estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. It is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-00249/2026.
The research tested seven scenarios, with the names of the governors of Paraná, (); from Minas Gerais, (); and Goiás, () and Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD). In all of them, Lula is ahead.
In addition to them, the names of former minister Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy) and Renan Santos (Mission) were mentioned as candidates. The governor of São Paulo, (), was left out. He declares that he will not run for President.
In the first round, Ratinho appears in two scenarios, with 8% and 7%, and Zema registers 4% in the four scenarios he is in. Caiado appears in two scenarios, with 4% of intentions. Milk is listed in two scenarios, at 3% and 4%.
The difference between Flávio and Lula in the second round is five points, with the former president’s son with 38% and the PT member with 43%. This is the same percentage that the current president has against Ratinho, who scores 35%, a difference of 8 percentage points.
Against Caiado, the distance between the two is ten points: he with 32%, and Lula with 42%. With Zema, it is 11 points. The governor of Minas Gerais recorded 32% against 43% for the PT member. Eduardo Leite scores 28% compared to 42% for the PT member — 14 points.
In relation to Aldo Rebelo, Lula has 44%, and the former minister, 25%. The difference totals 19 points, the same as in a possible clash with the leader of the MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre), Renan Santos. He has the same 25% against the PT member’s 44%.
Flávio and Lula have the biggest rejections, according to the survey: 55% of Brazilians know and would not vote for the former president’s son, the same percentage as in January. The PT member recorded a percentage of 54%, also the same rate as the previous month.
The survey shows Ratinho with a rejection rate of 40% (previously 41%), Caiado with 35% (after 36%), Zema with 34% (was 36%), Eduardo Leite, who had not been tested in January, with 35%, Aldo Rebelo with 26% (compared to 27%) and Renan Santos with 19% (21%).
