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In recent years, New Zealand has seen an exodus comparable only to the years after the 2008 financial crisis. Neighboring Australia is the main destination.
New Zealand saw more than 70 thousand of its citizens leave the country in just one year.
Although the number seems modest, it is equivalent to almost 1.4% of the population of this island country in the southwest of the Pacific Ocean, inhabited by around 5.1 million people.
This has been the greater outflow of New Zealanders in decades and is beginning to generate concern in the country.
In general, emigrants do not choose distant destinations such as Europe or the United States. They opt for a relatively short flight and settle in what has historically been their main destination: Australia.
The phenomenon is not new, but the intensity and context are new.
For decades, New Zealand recorded moderate net losses (the balance between those leaving and those arriving) of citizens, offset by the arrival of immigrants.
However, in the last two years the exits accelerated abruptlyamid a weak job market and a widespread perception of economic stagnation.
The comparison with Australia, where the GDP (Gross Domestic Product, the sum of all wealth produced) per capita is higher, the salaries are higher and there are more opportunities, it has become ubiquitous in everyday conversations, on social media and in New Zealand press headlines.
And, if previously the profile of New Zealand emigrants was that of a young man trying his luck for a few years in the neighboring country, today a growing number of experienced workers are leaving the country without a clear return plan.
For some experts, this change in profile and the intensification of departures indicate that New Zealand may be facing something more than a common migration cycle.
What’s happening
The numbers confirm that the departure of New Zealanders has entered an exceptional phase.
Before the pandemic, New Zealand recorded a relatively stable net loss of citizens, around 3000 people per yearaccording to data from national statistics agency Stats NZ.
More than 71,000 New Zealanders emigrated in the 12 months to October 2025, while around 26,000 returned to the country, representing a net loss of 45 thousand citizens.
The most recent precedent dates back to the peak of emigration observed in last two years of the global financial crisis (2011–2012), when the annual negative migration balance exceeded 40 thousand people.
That increase, however, was temporary and associated with the adverse conditions faced at the time by countries around the world.
The difference now, analysts point out, is the persistence of the phenomenon: the rate of exits remains high and shows no clear signs of slowing down.
Paul Spoonley, professor emeritus at Massey University in New Zealand, considers the number of departures “worrying”. According to him, although the volumes are similar to those at the end of the global financial crisis, more foreigners who lived there are now also leaving the country, which “reinforced a trend that shows no signs of slowing down”.
Australia concentrates around 60% of New Zealanders who leave their country, according to official data from recent years.
More than 700,000 New Zealanders (about 13% of the population) currently live in the giant neighboring country across the Tasman Sea. This contingent includes around 100,000 people born in Australia, but with New Zealand citizenship.
“This is a big attraction for a lot of people who have social ties there“, sociologist Francis Collins told broadcaster 1News.
The emigration of citizens occurs, moreover, in a context of weakening net immigration. Although the arrival of non-citizens still helps to dampen the departure of nationals, the total migration balance decreased significantly in relation to the peaks recorded after the pandemic.
As a result, New Zealand’s population growth rate fell from 2.3% in 2023 to just 0.7% in 2025.
What drives them to leave?
The increase in New Zealand emigration largely responds to economic factors.
“The main factor that explains the departures is the fragility of the job market, with a unemployment rate of 5.3% (the highest in almost a decade) and significant job cuts in the public sector,” Spoonley told BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish-language service.
Added to this scenario is a slowing economywith GDP growth around 1% in 2025, according to official estimates, in addition to the loss of purchasing power: salaries advance more slowly than prices, including those of basic items and housing, which increases pressure on families.
As a result, New Zealanders find themselves increasingly attracted to “better salaries in other countries, in addition to active recruitment by certain sectors and employers, with incentives such as cost of relocation expenses“, stated Spoonley.
“Another factor is the solidity of the job market in larger countries, with more options regarding the type of employment and career progression possibilities,” he added.
Who’s leaving
The profile of those leaving New Zealand has also changed.
Traditionally, to emigration was dominated by young people who had just finished high school or recent university graduates who were trying their luck for a few years abroad.
In the current cycle, however, there are more people in their 20s to 30s.
“This suggests that these people have already been in the New Zealand labor market for some time,” says Spoonley, from Massey University.
The expert highlights that 38% of emigrants are New Zealand citizens who were not born in the country.
“In some immigrant communities, there are more people leaving than arriving. This is the case, for example, of immigrants from the United Kingdom”, says Spoonley.
Added to this group are retirees who choose to reunite with family abroad, especially in Australia.
On a broader level, this pattern reflects a unique demographic reality: the more than 800,000 New Zealand citizens and their children living outside the country form one of the largest diasporas of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in proportion to the size of the population.
In this context, Spoonley criticizes that “the New Zealand government does not seem interested in connecting with the diaspora or taking advantage of their experience and contacts”.
As for the long-term implications, experts assess that the continued departure of experienced workers could result in loss of human capitallower productivity and weaker economic growth.
The government promised reforms to favor talent retention in New Zealand, with tax incentives and regulatory changes, although these measures are more aimed at attracting and retaining qualified foreign workers.
In any case, the fragile New Zealand economy, combined with other factors such as Australia’s comparative advantage in wages and opportunities, poses relevant challenges to reversing the growing trend of young people seeking new horizons in another country.
