Eight months before , the (Republicans) candidacy for re-election brings together the majority of the center-right in , supported by favoritism in the polls and control of the public machine, but coexists with internal disputes within the allied base. The opposition, in turn, continues without a competitive name and is still devising strategies for the dispute.
In addition to the Republicans, the governor must count on the support of PL, the PP-União Brasil federation, , his Government secretary, and Podemos.
Leaders attribute the strength of the alliance to positive evaluation rates and the government’s administrative structure. In the last Quaest survey for the São Paulo government, last August, the governor obtained 43% of voting intentions — in a scenario in which Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) received 21% and Erika Hilton () with 8%.
Tarcísio arrives at the election year having overcome most of the problems with allies in the political and administrative fields.
Over the last year, mayors of the base have complained about the delay in releasing resources for works and agreements in municipalities in the interior. As shown by Sheetmanagers even organized meetings to express dissatisfaction.
The governor promoted changes in political articulation to unlock relationships with allies and accelerate the execution of projects in cities. He replaced Arthur Lima in the Civil House with Roberto Carneiro, state president of the Republicans and former holder of the same portfolio in the Paulo Hartung government in Espírito Santo.
The new secretary is considered at Alesp (São Paulo Legislative Assembly) to be a skilled negotiator. “I need a more political profile to organize the upcoming journey”, stated Tarcísio in January.
The reorganization also seeks to manage demands at the base. Five parties are competing for three main positions: deputy governor and the two Senate seats.
The PSD currently holds the vice position, occupied by Felício Ramuth, considered Tarcísio’s favorite. The relationship with the PL was strained after Kassab, for the PSD, launched three pre-candidates for the Presidency in January, instead of supporting Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).
At a BTG bank event last week, Kassab quipped: “In this [eleição nacional] Tarcísio will forgive me, but we’re going to give him a chorus.”
Furthermore, by joining six state deputies to the PSDB, the PSD came into conflict with the Republicans, MDB and PP. An ally of the governor told Sheet that Kassab would have to learn not to want to have everything.
The PL intensified the dispute for the vice position with the candidacy of the president of Alesp, André do Prado. “Today it’s more between Felício and me”, he said.
The acronym argues that it offers more TV time, party resources and the largest state bench.
Tarcísio has sought to contain pretensions. “The PL is super important for us. It’s obvious that we also have to see that we will support the candidate for the Presidency of the Republic of the PL”, stated the governor last week, at an event at Palácio dos Bandeirantes, signaling that space may be limited.
If he wins, Tarcísio will be in his second term and will not be able to seek new re-election. One of the biggest reasons for allies’ interest in the vice position stems from the possibility of taking over the government if he resigns to seek another position, such as the Presidency.
Other subtitles also move. The governor received the president of the MDB, Baleia Rossi, last week. The PP, which complained about the lack of support for city halls from its members at the end of the year, got closer. At União Brasil, the president of the party in the capital of São Paulo, Milton Leite, maintains dialogue with the government.
One of the Senate seats has already been reserved for the former Secretary of Public Security (PP). The second remains open.
In the opposition camp, the scenario is more nebulous. Although PSOL and PSOL maintain a formal alliance, leaders admit uncertainty about running for government.
In January, a PT leader stated, with reservations, that the priority is to guarantee votes in the state, given the assessment that Tarcísio is the favorite. The concern is that a broad victory will strengthen Flávio Bolsonaro. The PT member is worried about losing votes from the São Paulo electorate if he does not take the state government dispute to the second round.
Lula and the national leadership of the PT defend their own candidacy, evaluating that the number 13 at the head of the ticket helps to attract votes. The state board agrees to support an external name.
Under pressure, the Minister (Finance) resists running for government, but admits running for the Senate, according to allies.
The vice-president (PSB) and the ministers (PSB), Marina Silva (now on the Network) and (MDB) are also considered. Alckmin prefers to remain vice-president rather than face a new election.
Tebet is supported to run for state government by a wing of the PT. To do this, in addition to changing her domicile to São Paulo, she will have to change parties. The PSB has already made a formal invitation to her, but, behind the scenes, Márcio França has been advocating that he be the candidate for Palácio dos Bandeirantes.
The name of França, however, has not been considered by PT members, according to the Sheet with a member of the PT national leadership.
Leaders interviewed by the report see little chance of an outsider emerging capable of breaking the polarization. The Mission party, linked to the MBL, is considering launching federal deputy Kim Kataguiri.
The PSDB, which governed the state for 28 years before Tarcísio’s election, has no discussions to launch a candidate for government. “Our priority is to create a slate of deputies,” said former federal deputy José Anibal. The party’s fear is that this year it will not reach the barrier clause, which is to have at least 13 federal deputies or 2.5% of the total votes.
