Analyst Fernanda Magnotta assessed, in the CNN 360°that a US attack on Iran is increasingly likely, but with a limited scope and specific objectives. According to the expert, the signs point to an American military incursion that should not follow the format of long-term operations or territorial invasion.
“We see it increasingly likely, considering that the United States is not only escalating the rhetoric, but in addition to this discursive coercion, we have the construction of a military structure that is consolidating”, explained Magnotta.
According to the analyst, the historical characteristic of Donald Trump’s use of military force indicates a pattern of specific actions, rather than broad operations. “President Trump, since his first administration and now even more so in his second, is very reticent in the use of force for long-term operations or operations with a more unlimited perspective. So that idea of invading territory, occupying, carrying out conventional wars, is not something that is, in general, part of the Trump doctrine”, he highlighted.
Bounded Scope Attack
Magnotta highlighted that, although the United States would benefit from an eventual regime change in Iran and needs substantive solutions for the Iranian nuclear program, the current American administration tends to prefer specific military actions. “It is the image of an imminent conflict, of an attack that is quite possible and increasingly likely, but under limited circumstances, limited to certain circumstances,” he stated.
The objectives of a possible American attack, according to the analyst, would be mainly two: to generate deterrence, preventing the advancement of Iranian nuclear and offensive capabilities, and to create ways to increase pressure on diplomatic negotiations. “It is not an unrestricted, broad and general attack, it is a concise, circumscribed attack,” he explained.
The expert warned, however, against , even with a limited scope attack. “It is not because the United States does not want a wide-ranging war that, eventually, an attack cannot trigger it. This is the risk factor, it is the powder keg. It could be that a circumscribed attack, depending on the consequences, could generate a large war that gets out of control”, concluded Magnotta.
