The tension continues, the anxiety about their next step grows and the question remains: when and how will he decide to strike?
The analysis by the Jerusalem Post points to four main scenarios that are considered the most prevalent, depending on strategic choices, diplomatic moves and religious events in the region, such as the month of Ramadan, while each of them seems to bring different consequences for Iran, the Middle East and the balance of power worldwide.
Scenario 1: Direct attack within the current week
- US President Donald Trump could attack Iran between Sunday and Thursday.
- This would happen if Trump had already decided to attack Tehran but waited:
- to complete military preparations,
- to find that the negotiations with Iran are not leading to a satisfactory result.
- It could also strike on Thursday if Iran made an offer that Trump would immediately reject.
- However, that scenario seems less likely as a US-Iran meeting is scheduled for Thursday and Trump would likely want time to evaluate Iran’s latest offer.
Scenario 2: Attack early or within the next week
- This is considered the most likely scenario.
- Trump initially gave Iran a four-day “deadline” for a deal, which he has varied in his statements, using the deadlines more as a guiding tool.
- If he decides to give Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei the entire deadline and evaluate a new offer but finds it insufficient, the attack will take place during that period.
Scenario 3: Attack after Ramadan (March 19)
- Ramadan started last week and ends on March 19.
- Beginning of war during Ramadan:
- could damage the readiness of Sunni allies in the region,
- it would give arguments to Iran that the US is attempting an invasion against Islam.
- While it makes sense to wait until after Ramadan, scenario 2 is seen as slightly more likely due to costs and the length of stay of US forces in the region.
Scenario 4: Offensive action in the more distant future
- The least likely scenario.
- Maintaining such a large military force in the Middle East costs billions of dollars (two aircraft carriers, over 12 destroyers, hundreds of other aircraft).
- No analyst believes that the US “armada” will remain inactive after mid-March.
- However, Trump may delay, waiting for a better solution or offer from Iran, as this decision is one of the most important of his presidency.
Anticipated reactions
Initially, Israeli analysts were divided on whether Khamenei would attack Israel in the event of a US attack.
Today, the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel is increasing, especially if Israel participates in American action.
