It warned today that it would consider any attack on its territory, including limited casualties, an “act of aggression” at a time when Washington is increasing military pressure against it and building up its presence in the .
On Friday, US President Donald Trump said that if Tehran does not quickly reach an agreement with the US, while leaving hints even for regime change.
Responding to these statements, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghai, was categorical:
“Regarding the first question about a limited blow, there is no limited blow. An act of aggression will be considered an act of aggression. Full stop.”
“No attack will go unanswered”
Tehran makes it clear that it does not recognize the logic of “surgical” or “symbolic” strikes. In Iran’s reading, any military action amounts to a full-blown act of aggression and will be dealt with accordingly.
The warning comes as the US military is beefing up air and naval forces in the region, a move that is fueling fears of an escalation and wider conflagration in the Middle East.
Missiles and drones: The immediate military “paper”
For nearly half a century, . Unable to compete with Washington’s military might on conventional terms, it has invested in asymmetric deterrence.
According to international media analyses, the Islamic Republic has thousands of missiles and drones within range of US bases in the Middle East, as well as Israel. In June, after a surprise attack by Israel, Tehran responded with waves of ballistic missiles and drones, testing the limits of Israel’s anti-aircraft systems.
Iranian authorities maintain that weapons stockpiles have been replenished, while US officials estimate that, despite the losses, the country’s arsenal remains a serious threat.
Network of allies on three fronts
In addition to its own armed forces, Tehran has a network of allies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, who have vowed to mobilize in the event of an attack.
Despite the military pressure they have received from Israel and the US, organizations such as Shiite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are still seen as actors capable of opening multiple fronts, widening the conflict.
Economic warfare and the Strait of Hormuz
Another powerful “weapon” of Tehran is its geostrategic position. More than 20% of the world’s oil and a significant percentage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the Straits of Hormuz.
The threat of obstructing navigation or even temporarily closing the passage could send energy prices soaring and ripple effects across the global economy. The Iranian navy has fast boats, underground facilities and experience in laying mines – a tactic that has been used in the past, during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Escalation and the question of the next day
Despite internal pressures and recent losses, the Iranian regime appears determined to respond to any attack in a way that imposes high costs.
How and to what extent it activates the tools at its disposal will depend, according to analysts, on the level of threat it assesses it faces. In any case, Tehran’s message is clear: there is no such thing as a “limited strike” – and any move could pave the way for a wider, uncontrollable conflict.
