48 months after Russia’s total invasion of Ukraine, the war continues with no end in sight and highlights the physical and psychological wear and tear on a nation abandoned by its main ally, the United States.
Another dark anniversary has arrived, 4 years of the most lethal war on the European continent since the Second World War. In this period of exhausting days, endless nights and questions still unanswered, two nations that were once one continue to battle for opposing ideals, driven by diametrically different values. A conflict seen by many as asymmetrical, a battle of David against Goliath, the geopolitical embodiment of
ideological dichotomy that has divided the world for more than 100 years and which today has become an exhausting war of attrition.
From a military and territorial aspect, Russia has the advantage. After 4 years of war, almost 21% of Ukrainian territory is occupied and solid positions have been conquered. Ukraine, with a considerably smaller arsenal and population, demonstrated great resilience and national unity in the face of the invasion, but was unable to recover most of the annexed territories. However, Russian gains and the maintenance of part of the territory in Ukrainian hands came through a lot of blood on both sides. Calculations by the Kiel Institute, which has monitored the war since the beginning, point to almost 2 million war casualties on both sides. More recent surveys show that around a thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers die every day at the front and at various patrol points on the extensive front line. The balance is the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives,
especially young men, in countries with low birth rates and already with serious demographic dynamics problems before the war began.
Economically, the war is proving to be a disaster for both belligerents. Both Russians and Ukrainians are losers in this regard. According to a report made by the World Bank, the European Union and the UN, 600 billion dollars (about 3 trillion reais) would be needed to rebuild Ukraine after the war. Most of the infrastructural losses are in homes, bridges, ports and power plants severely bombed or destroyed by the Russians. With millions of Ukrainian refugees in other countries and a significant proportion of male youth killed or injured by the war, the economic prospects for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction also remain bleak. Reconstruction efforts must be joint, involving institutional reforms and a lot of patience for the country to return to 2021 levels.
Russia managed to resist Western sanctions surprisingly well for the first few years. The impact desired by Joe Biden and European allies has not yet been achieved, largely due to the fact that Vladimir Putin has prepared his country for a war economy with solid financial reserves. However, these reserves are already showing clear signs of depletion. The prolongation of the war for a much longer period than initially imagined by the Kremlin means that Russia is currently paying more than 500 million dollars a day to continue fighting, a figure that, if added up over a period of one year, far exceeds the country’s annual spending on health and education combined. The isolation of the global banking system and the ban on access to Western components and technologies have also significantly set back Russian industry and companies. The inflation of basic items and the devaluation of the ruble also make life difficult for the average citizen and gradually bring economic fatigue to people far from the Ukrainian border.
When looking at geopolitics, many of Russia’s objectives were not achieved, starting with the expansion of NATO. According to Moscow’s official version, one of the reasons for the invasion of the neighboring country would be Ukraine’s intention to join the Western allies. This same alliance has gained two more new members since 2022, Finland and Sweden. Both Nordic countries adopted a position of neutrality during the Cold War, but felt threatened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and promptly joined the Western military alliance. Finland shares a 1300km border with Russia and has tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers in a country with mandatory conscription. Sweden, in addition to also having a high-caliber navy and army, produces the most modern fighter jets that will now also be used by more NATO countries.
Also in this same aspect, Russia managed to make Europe more united, causing military spending to soar, especially in the richest countries. A new mega package of defense investments within the European Union is expected to exceed 800 billion euros in the next decade. Russia’s continental isolation was once a political formality, today it is an economic, military and strategic reality.
The United States’ stance was perhaps the most complex to analyze during these 4 years. While Joe Biden gave ideological and financial support to Ukraine as he considered the country an ally with the same values, Donald Trump preferred the path of abandonment. Whether in humanitarian and military aid, or in mediating the conflict, the stance of the current republican government has chosen to favor Vladimir Putin and his objectives of brute force over respect for international law. Ukraine’s position after Trump’s choice became even more challenging. Air attacks became more intense and defense capacity became scarcer. The feeling of gratitude that many Ukrainians feel towards the United States of America for the fundamental help at the beginning of the invasion, little by little gives way to questions about the real intentions of North American politicians and businesspeople in the Eastern European country.
What is observed in 2026, as well as what was observed in 2022, is that Ukraine will not accept capitulation, no matter how much Moscow and Washington defend this position. The feeling of loneliness permeates the streets of Kharkiv and Kiev, physical exhaustion and war trauma remain in the hearts of millions of Ukrainians, but the resilience to continue defending their positions is a constant that will accompany these people until the end of this war.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
