In the parliamentary elections that will take place on April 12, there are signs that things may be different and a personal regime of 16 years may be overthrown. Peter Mayar’s opposition center-right Tisza party now leads by 20 percentage points, taking 55% in vote intention, compared to 35% for his ruling party, according to a Median poll published by Hungarian newspaper HVG.
In third place and in the Parliament “Our country”
The corresponding difference in opinion polls a month ago was 12% (51% vs. 39%). The third party to enter Parliament, according to the poll, is the far-right “Our Country” (Mi Hazank) with 6%, as in the Hungarian electoral system at least 5% of the vote is needed for a party to enter parliament.
Magyar’s European vision of Hungary
The man challenging Orbán so forcefully for the first time is Peter Mayar, a 44-year-old lawyer and former official of the ruling Fidesz party. In February 2024, he resigned from all government positions, announcing his intention to propose an alternative vision for the country. He took over the Tisza party (from the acronym Tisztelet és Szabadság, meaning “Respect and Freedom”) and managed to be elected MEP.
Having come from within the Fidesz party, but now identifying as a conservative liberal, he is seen as possessing a mixture of pragmatism and inspirational idealism with which to challenge a regime of 16 years.
If a difference similar to the polls is confirmed at the polls, Mayor will have the ability and popular support to undo some of the structures that have led to Viktor Orbán’s authoritarian and personal-centered rule and which, after all, have cost a €20 billion freeze in European Union funds over corruption and rule of law concerns.
A very important stake would be, however, to orient Hungary towards the adoption of the euro, contrary to Orbán’s policy. Hungary’s accession to the Eurozone would definitely be helped by the release of European funds.
Government advertising on taxpayers’ money
Stagnation with risks of stagflation plaguing the Hungarian economy is seen as the main cause of discontent among the electorate. On the other hand, Orbán’s attempt to conduct an almost single-issue election campaign with the war in Ukraine at the center is not considered successful. Billboards have been filled with – paid for by the Hungarian taxpayer – AI-generated images of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky begging European leaders. The slogan of the advertisement is: “Our message to Brussels: We will not pay!”.
Other ads paid for by a pro-government company portray Mayar as a puppet of Zelensky. In other cases, AI videos show images of a fictional future phase of the war in Ukraine, involving Hungarians if the opposition is supposed to win, and with the slogan that Orbán is the only safe peace solution. “If you vote Magyar, Hungarians will be killed in the Ukrainian fields” is the meaning of these election ads. “If you want Hungary to go to war, vote for Tisza,” said Orbán himself in a Facebook video.
The issue of Russian oil and the vetoes
One of the main reasons why Orbán’s Hungary is considered the “black sheep” of Europe is its attitude towards Russia, having blocked the new European sanctions package with a veto on February 23rd. Orban cited interference with Russian oil passing through Ukraine, particularly since January 2026, and said he would continue to use the veto until the flow of oil is restored.
The Hungarian prime minister attributes the interruption to the flow of Russian oil to Ukraine and calls it “blackmail”, hinting at a correlation with Hungary’s political stance on sanctions against Russia. Ukraine counters that the interference is due to drone warfare, which it blames on Russia.
The issue of Russian oil has been put by the ruling faction at the center of the political dialogue. Orban’s veto threats are not limited to sanctions against Russia. They also include the cancellation of a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine.
Hope vs fear
If Orbán’s election campaign was based more on fear and geopolitics, insisting that a defeat would mean Hungary’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, Majar’s campaign had, by contrast, positive messages of hope and a focus on the economy. His criticism focuses on punctuality, the rising cost of living and endemic corruption.
Mayjar advocates the restoration of the rule of law, which would be in line with a renewed European orientation of the country. He puts forward a series of proposals for health and education, arguing that they are feasible as long as money is not lost to corruption. Regarding energy, he states that he will follow the European policy of diversification of energy sources.
Of course, Orbán’s pre-election recipe to rely on the fear of Hungary’s military involvement in Ukraine was also applied in the previous election and was judged as a success as a result. However, the monotony of the message, growing authoritarianism in a country that appears to be copying Russian practices in targeting the LGBTI+ community and critical voices and, above all, the economic crisis seem to have brought voter fatigue.
Hungarian public opinion appears divided on the issue of the war in Ukraine. The 4-year anniversary since the start of the war was celebrated by a large number of Hungarian citizens, as well as Ukrainian refugees, who ended up marching on the Russian embassy. Its liberal mayor
Budapest Gergely Karatsoni praised the fact that another Hungary that supports the right has been revealed.
However, the mechanisms of a 16-year-old regime are not easy to overthrow, since they are based on the cultivation of citizen passivity and a generalized sense of futility. The mix of focusing on the economy and offering avenues of hope is the opposition’s way of driving a new political movement ahead of the April 12 election.
