As the first day of operations by and against him comes to an end – without this meaning that military operations will stop overnight – a first account of the disasters is indicative:
First of all, it should be noted that an anonymous Israeli source told the Wall Street Journal that the exact time of the strikes was based on when top officials of the Iranian leadership were meeting. Which shows weeks, if not months, of planning.
According to the Israeli Air Force spokesman in the attack 200 aircraft participated, hitting 500 targetsthe largest IAF mobilization in history. The US military has not yet commented on the means used for the strikes, but we know for sure that Tomahawk missiles and missiles from F-35 and F/A 18 fighters were used.
Beyond that, the main areas of Iran that were hit are Tehranthe Cambridgeh Urmiathe Zanyanthe Karajthe Comthe Kermanshahthe Isfahanthe Shirazthe Minab and the Busherall in central and central-western Iran.
Iran retaliated as well United Arab Emiratesthe Bahrain and the Kuwait confirmed that missiles hit their territory. OR Saudi Arabiathe Iraqh Jordan and the Catarrh they said they intercepted missiles.
The Washington Post has confirmed at least one attack on the US Navy headquarters in Bahrain.
Video shows the moment an Iranian missile struck a United States military base in Bahrain. The strike was part of Iran’s retaliation for Israel–US attacks across Iran.
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish)
Israel has declared a state of emergency across the country and citizens have been instructed to stay in shelters.
Those who moved to Dubai for a tax shelter are searching for bomb shelters tonight.
— Rishi Bagree (@rishibagree)
The UN Security Council is meeting
As for the next steps, the night will be long as at 11 pm Greek time the UN Security Council meets in an emergency, in which Greece also participates.
Is Khamenei dead?
A while ago, the Reuters news agency reported that the Supreme Leader of Iran, , was killed in Israeli and American strikes, as a senior Israeli official said. The news was also broadcast by the Israeli media N12 and KAN. So far there has been no Iranian confirmation of his fate.
Israel’s Channel 12 reports that Benjamin Netanyahu saw a photo of the body of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Even if the supreme religious leader is dead, it is assumed that Israel will seek to eliminate his son Moztaba Hosseini Khamenei who was considered his successor.
What happens now?
First, Brent oil futures are trading at $73 a barrel, up just over 3% today, while WTI is at $69 (2.78%). The increase is modest, due to uncertainty over who is in leadership in Iran and who is in control of government structures.
If the Revolutionary Guards, with unconfirmed information, say that they are closed for tankers, then
Why Sunday 1/3 is critical
Sunday is also critical for two reasons:
Firstlyto determine how successful air and missile strikes against government buildings and other facilities in Iran have been and to target facilities that have not been destroyed.
Secondlywhat will be the reaction of the rest of the Gulf countries if Iran continues to launch missiles against them. Will they align with the US or push for an end to operations, especially if the death of Iran’s supreme leader is confirmed?
Israel, however, is not bound by the wishes of neighboring states and considers the current situation the greatest opportunity since 1979 to eliminate the threat of Iran.
It is too early to draw conclusions regarding what the next business day will bring (not tomorrow but the day after). An important element is the reaction of the population of Iran. So far there is fear and numbness in both regime and anti-establishment parties.
The critical question is what will happen between the two groups when hostilities are over and there is a power vacuum, as appears to be the case.
In any case, what we can expect in the next 24 hours is condemnation of Russian and Chinese incursions into the US. of the UN, statements by the states of the Persian Gulf against Iran’s strikes (Saudi Arabia has already condemned the attacks even though it did not give permission to American and Israeli fighters to use its airspace) and a Europe which will continue the line of “restraint” and condemn the Iranian retaliations, without however offering anything substantial
