Erdem Sahin / EPA
Iranian woman mourns the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
A “seismic” political event in the history of Iran. Between tight internal control and the “death of Hitler”.
O Iran of the last decades may have ended on February 28, 2026. Last Saturday, the USA and Israel, the Asian country. To “eliminate imminent threats”, according to Donald Trump.
The US president later added that “this is the best chance for the Iranian people to take back their country”.
Trump already left this message after that of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. He was “one of the most evil people in history”, continued the White House leader.
And now?
Ali Khamenei’s death opens a phase of transition highly unstable. It’s a political event seismic in the history of Iran, as described by – but does not automatically imply immediate collapse of the Iranian system.
The Islamic Republic of Iran emerged as such 47 years ago, following the Iranian Revolution led by Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei’s predecessor.
O Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran is distributed across several institutions: clergy, supervisory bodies and above all the security apparatus.
Likely effects in the near future, in this new Iran:
Succession
The mechanism exists, but the policy is opaque. The constitutional design points to a process in which the Assembly of Experts chooses the new supreme leader; In practice, it is a process very conditioned by internal power networks and by those who control security and information.
A describes Khamenei’s death as a shock that accelerates a high-stakes succession race, with uncertainty heightened by the context of conflict, but also by the need to keep the chain of command functional.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard
This body gains even more centrality. The “hard hand” may continue. Even with the absence of one of its vertices, the system is resilient.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is a pillar of the regime’s stability — which tends to favor solutions and a more security stance in the short term.
In fact, Khamenei’s successor could be precisely one of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Risks
Social fragmentation and episodes of repression, upheaval. A polarized country is expected, with mourning in some areas and celebrations in others.
As reported by , there are places where this death is commemorated as if it had been the death of Adolf Hitler.
This discrepancy can lead to arrests and a cycle of protests and repression, especially if there are signs of a “void” of authority.
Foreign policy
This is one of the most delicate points in this attack: the greater probability of escalation in the short term.
In the immediate future, the most likely dynamic is regional escalation, with direct attacks, or via allies; because the Iranian leadership will have incentives to show control and deterrence.
It reinforces that Tehran promises to respond and continue attacks against Israeli and North American interests.
But on the US side, this death will bring about a change of regime – which could mean a prolonged and unpredictable campaign, not a quick transition.
“Window” for change
It exists, but it is short and uncertain. European officials already have an opportunity for a “new path”, but they also highlight the risk of instability and violence.
In the short term, this “window” depends less on external statements and more on what happens within the clergy–Iranian Revolutionary Guard–institutions triangle.
