Kristrún Frostadóttir, Prime Minister of Iceland
Iceland is a close partner of the EU, but is not a full member. This could change if Icelanders vote to join the bloc. With relations with the US deteriorating, the government may bring forward a referendum on the issue.
Apparently it was a joke, but no one in Iceland thought it was funny. In January, Billy Long, appointed by US President Donald Trump to the position of ambassador to the Nordic island, joked with some members of the US Congress that the Iceland should become the 52nd US state and that he would be the governor.
There was immediate outrage in Iceland, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs contacting the US embassy for clarification, social media flooded with negative comments and thousands of Icelandic citizens, in a country with around 400,000 inhabitants, sign a petition demanding the appointment of someone else for the position of ambassador. That didn’t happen, but Long was forced to clarify that there was “nothing serious” in the comment: “[…] If anyone felt offended, I apologize,” he said.
The recent debate between Trump and US NATO partners over the Arctic island of Greenland has certainly contributed to worsening anger and fears of the Icelandic population. Although Iceland belongs to Europe, it is much closer to Greenland than to the European continent, being separated by only 300 kilometers at its narrowest points. Icelanders therefore fear that their country could become a pawn in the great game between the great powers.
This concern is such that Iceland is seriously considering membership of the European Union. The EU-friendly center-left government had initially planned a referendum on the issue for 2027, but is now considering bringing it forward to August this year. According to recent polls, the chances of Icelanders voting in favor of joining the bloc are good: 45% support joining the EU, while 35% are against. Early last year, a survey by public broadcaster RÜV revealed that three-quarters of respondents considered the US a threat.
Iceland would have to adhere to EU fisheries policy
Iceland gained independence from Denmark in 1944 and since then, June 17th has been celebrated as a national holiday. It is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA), which means that enjoy all the benefits of the single market European and is part of the Schengen Area.
However, Iceland is not a full member of the EU, and this is largely due to the bloc’s common fisheries policy. If Iceland, whose most important economic sector is the fishing industry, were to become a full member of the EU, it would have to join the policy and open its waters to fishing fleets from other EU countries. It would lose control over fishing quotas and possibly face overfishing of its stocks.
Protected by the USA for decades
Furthermore, although Iceland is a founding member of NATO, does not have its own army. For decades, Iceland has depended on the US for protection, even as it developed an increasingly important geostrategic position in the North Atlantic Ocean, but this protection is becoming increasingly questionable.
And not just because of Greenland. Trump’s decision to impose 15% tariffs on Icelandic products It hit the country hard, so dependent on fish exports. This was not well received, considering that the US is its second most important trading partner, after the EU. So, despite concerns from the fishing industry, EU membership is becoming increasingly attractive to many in Iceland.
Brussels shows good will
This is not the first time in Iceland’s history that the country has approached the EU. After being hit hard by the 2008 global financial crisis, the country applied to join the bloc in the hope of benefit from a rescue package. Iceland was on the verge of bankruptcy after the collapse of the country’s three largest banks, unemployment jumped from almost zero to around 10%, the Icelandic krona suffered a sharp devaluation and the country had to take out a loan of more than 2 billion dollars from the International Monetary Fund.
But the country’s economy improved, and although formal negotiations had begun, in 2013 a center-right Eurosceptic coalition suspended them and, in 2015, withdrew the country’s candidacy.
Taking into account the current geopolitical situation, there appears to be good will in Brussels. “Iceland is a reliable partner and a close friend of the EU” European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos recently said on X after a meeting with the Icelandic Foreign Minister. “We have agreed to stay in close contact as we deal with our ever-changing geopolitical environment in these turbulent times.”
Since Iceland is already quite integrated into EU structures through the EEA and EFTA, the country is considered a relatively straightforward negotiating partner in Brussels. And in the power struggle with the US over spheres of influence, Iceland’s EU membership would also send a clear signal of strength to Washington.
