He closure of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which millions of tons of crude oil pass daily, could have an impact on the world’s trade and energy panorama, and therefore, especially in Europe, a recipient of the vast majority of Iranian oil (third world producer).
While Iran closes the strait, the consequences for the global energy market are already noticeable, especially with a rise in the price of a barrel, which after the close of trading returned to the market directly at 100 dollars and which It is currently above $80..
And, although Moscow is not directly involved in the conflict, the main economic beneficiary could be Vladimir Putin. Europe, on the other hand, would be one of the regions most affected by the rise in crude oil prices..
Oil remains the central fuel of the world economy. About 20% of global supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If this strategic route were blocked for weeks or months, the impact would be strong: less supply, rising prices and a new global energy crisis.
A lifeline for the Kremlin
In Moscow the scenario is already being talked about openly. Kirill Dmitriev, head of a Russian investment fund and a regular figure in international negotiations, had already anticipated on social networks that the barrel could exceed $100 if Hormuz was blocked. No sooner said than done.
For the Kremlin it could be a blessing. Russia is going through a delicate financial moment after more than four years of war in Ukraine. Raw materials revenue fell to $125 billion (about €107.6 billion) last yeara far cry from the more than 300 billion recorded in 2022. The Russian budget deficit reached 2.6% in 2025 and forecasts pointed to a further deterioration in 2026.
The problem is not only the global context, with a weaker world economy and contained crude oil prices. Sanctions also weigh. donald trump imposed new restrictions on major Russian oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil. In addition, American pressure on India reduced purchases of Russian crude oil.
As a consequence, Russian oil from the Urals has had to be sold at steep discounts. In February, this discount reached $28 per barrel, the highest since the beginning of 2023. In practice, Moscow managed to earn just $40 per barrel when it would need around $59 on average in 2026 to balance its accounts.
The war in Ukraine depends on crude oil
The financing of depends largely on those energy income. So far, the Kremlin has avoided mass mobilization to avoid causing internal unrest and has turned to volunteers, raising recruitment bonuses to over $50,000 per soldier in some cases.
A sustained increase in the price of oil would alleviate that pressure. If the global market enters a deficit due to the interruption of supplies from the Middle East, the discounts applied to Russian crude oil could be reduced. Economists such as Benjamin Hilgenstock, of the KSE Institute of the kyiv School of Economics, warn that shortages “would increase the desperation of buyers and strengthen Russia’s negotiating position,” according to .
In the short term, Moscow could place cargoes that currently remain at sea due to lack of customers. In the medium term, if the closure of Hormuz continues for months, Russian oil could once again be considered indispensable in certain markets.
Europe, the great victim
Once again, an increasingly weakened and dependent Europe bears the brunt. While Russia would earn more for each barrel exported, Europe would face a new energy shock. The rise in crude oil prices would quickly be transferred to fuels, industry and inflation. You will already be noticing it when you go to refuel.
After the energy crisis of 2022, The EU diversified suppliers and reduced its direct dependence on Russian oil. But the market is global: a sudden increase in prices affects all buyers. With a barrel above $100, the cost for net importing economies is immediate.
Everything will depend on the duration of the crisis. If the tension eases in a few weeks, the market could stabilize. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for months, the global energy balance would change and Russia would have an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its financial position in the midst of war.
