Even after the outbreak of the cases of and discounts on the benefit of the , Brazilians’ concern about the .
According to the survey, health (21%) leads among the country’s main problems cited by interviewees, technically tied with security (19%). The mention of corruption (9%) only appears later, numerically behind (11%) and next to (9%).
The result, however, should not prevent the concern with the issue of morality in politics from resonating in the strategies of the two main pre-candidates for the Planalto: the current president, (), and the senator () — both with glass ceilings when this is the subject.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over across Brazil. The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. The research is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-03715/2026.
The research was carried out before the repercussions of messages exchanged between the minister of the (Supreme Federal Court) and the former banker who owned Master, on the day of his arrest.
In addition to voting intentions and government evaluation, interviewees answered the question: “Considering the areas that are the responsibility of the federal government, in your opinion, what is the country’s main problem today?”, in a single and spontaneous response.
In September 2023, corruption, theft or dishonesty were cited by 6% as Brazil’s main problem. The number for the category has always varied within the margin of error since then, ranging from the same 6% to 9% this March.
The data suggests that so far there has been no significant impact on the perception of the subject following revelations involving fraud estimated at R$12 billion and .
General Director of Datafolha, Luciana Chong says that health tends to prevail among mentions of the country’s main problems. More recently, at least during the Lula 3 government, the concerns also began to gain strength.
“It’s interesting to see how this is reflected over time,” says Chong. “Corruption was an important event in Dilma’s government, but now it is not necessary in relation to these two problems. (…) During Bolsonaro’s time, for example, health had even higher rates.”
In the first government, corruption fluctuated from 3% to 14%, always well behind health, which had a rate from 31% to 48%. In the second term, in the midst of , concerns about corruption became the most cited problem in the country, reaching 34% and 37%.
In management, the percentage related to corruption begins to fall. The number goes from 32% in mid-2016 to 20% at the end of 2018. Under the Jair Bolsonaro government, the level stabilizes in single digits, varying from 3%, at minimum, to 9%, at maximum.
The result also has to do with profile. Concern about corruption is lower among voters who earn up to two minimum wages (6%). Those who declare their vote for Lula also register a percentage below the average (4%) and those with a declared vote for Flávio (14%).
Antonio Lavareda, president of Ipespe’s scientific council, states that, in spontaneous questions, interviewees resort to the “top of mind” and do not have the opportunity to compare different areas. As the answer is unique, corruption can end up in the background.
Furthermore, he adds, despite the recent rebound, the INSS crisis broke out a long time ago, and it is possible that the Master case will be understood by the majority of the population as a financial fraud scandal along the lines of da, and not as one.
FGV professor Marco Antônio Teixeira says that the fact that there is no political group specifically involved may also have an influence, but this does not mean that the government cannot pay the bill later on. “In an election year the sounding board is always stronger.”
The extent of the Master case is not yet clear, but there is an understanding that the investigations can reach from right to left. The INSS, although transversal, may fall more heavily on Lula, especially through .
The minister, rapporteur of the case at the Supreme Court, broke the banking, tax and telematic secrecy of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, to investigate an alleged relationship with the lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as Careca of the INSS.
On Flávio’s side, the case of “rachadinha” can weigh in. , the aftermath of the investigations is one of the main concerns of the senator’s allies. Although filed in 2021, they left open questions about the financial transactions of the former president’s son.
The CEO of AtlasIntel, Andrei Roman, says it is difficult to say who will be most impacted, which will depend on what comes to light, but he says it is possible to say that corruption should be among the main themes of this year’s election, possibly the most relevant.
According to Roman, with developments every day in the Master and INSS cases, corruption is the topic of the moment, and, for him, it is safe to say that the volume of news in the coming months tends to influence the political calculation of the candidates.
