The president appears to be approaching an extremely difficult crossroads when it comes to Iran. Unable to declare victory, he appears to be losing control of an ever-expanding war, and the strategic and economic consequences of a withdrawal could prove more disastrous than staying involved.
Trump is not yet in the hopeless stalemate that found himself in presidents like Lyndon B. Johnson and George W. Bush, who prolonged wars that were already essentially lost. However, the warning signs are everywhere.
One particular episode in the war, now approaching two weeks, captures more than anything else the gradual loss of Trump’s ability to control escalation: the shutdown of , one of the world’s most important oil transit points.
The Iranian regime’s challenge shows that although the United States possesses enormous military superiority, not everything can be solved by force, despite the administration’s tough rhetoric.
Closing the Straits presents Trump with a military conundrum that will be extremely dangerous for the US Navy to try to solve, despite the fact that the Islamic Republic is lagging behind militarily. It’s also the latest consequence of a war that Trump launched on a “feeling,” which seems to betray a lack of foresight. After all, US officials have understood for decades how Iran would react to an attack.
“You can’t have victory if you can’t use the Straits of Hormuz,” retired US Navy Capt. Lawrence Brennan. “The Straits of Hormuz must be reopened to international trade and this is difficult, if not impossible, to do under the current circumstances. As much as I appreciate the president’s optimism, declaring victory after a day or two just doesn’t feel right. This is going to take a lot longer than we hope.”
The widening chain reaction overwhelms oil prices. on Thursday, in what officials described as an accident, underscored the cost of massive military mobilizations, following the earlier deaths of seven Americans in the conflict.
The ominous atmosphere undermines White House assurances that the conflict has already made Americans safer by removing the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb and crushing the country’s ballistic missile program.
Increasing political and military challenges
Trump abhors restraint, a salesman accustomed to using hyperbole. “Let me say, we’ve won,” he said in Kentucky on Wednesday. “You know, you never want to say you’ve won too soon. We won. We won. Within the first hour it was over, but we won,” Trump said.
However, an objective assessment of the facts shows that the United States has not yet won. Growing complexity challenges a politically convenient narrative of victory.
The crisis in the Straits of Hormuz
Iran’s effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz, as well as attacks on tankers in the Gulf, have sent oil and gasoline prices soaring at gas stations. The US Navy, aware of the danger from anti-ship missiles and sea and air drones, is reluctant to enter this critical sea passage. Insurance premiums for ships have skyrocketed.
There is no clear military solution to quickly open the Straits. And even if they were to become accessible again, constant escort missions would be required, which may be beyond the capabilities of already overstretched and weakened US and Western navies. A better option would be a political solution with Iran. But Trump demands unconditional surrender and Tehran refuses.
“The problem is that there’s really no good way to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, given that the Iranians can keep it closed with a small number of very cheap drones,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.
“This is the point that many of us made before the war even started: that the challenges posed by Iran are political challenges that require a political solution. Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure, its nuclear program, these are all issues that need a political solution. The same is true here,” Kavanagh said. “There is no military solution to this, because even if you open the Straits now, what will keep them open?”
The supreme leader problem
The assassination of Ali Khamenei was one of the first blows of the US-Israeli war to present the conflict as an immediate effort to force regime change, even if US officials later downplayed that goal after the regime survived.
So the replacement of the longtime leader by his son Mojtaba Khamenei clouds Trump’s success narrative. It allows Democrats to present Operation Epic Fury as a military success but a tactical failure.
Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss, a Marine Corps veteran, told CNN that the new supreme leader is “even more extreme and even more hardline than his father.”
Would Israel stop fighting?
Even if Trump goes so far as to want to end the war for political reasons, there is no certainty that Israel, which, due to its geographical location, is much more familiar with the possibility of “eternal wars”, will agree. There are already signs that US and Israeli strategic goals may diverge after Israel bombed Iranian oil infrastructure.
Trump said on Sunday that ending the war would be “a joint decision” between him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The comment reignited concerns that a foreign power is exerting too much influence on the military decisions of an American head of state. Israel’s oft-rekindled wars and military operations—in places like Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Syria—suggest that it sees regional security as an ongoing mission rather than a conflict with a clear victorious end, as Trump would prefer.
No clear narrative about the war
Confusion and contradictions in the administration’s descriptions of the war’s goals may also hinder the formation of a coherent victory story, particularly if events in the Middle East continue to spiral out of Donald Trump’s control.
The nuclear issue
Trump claims to have further damaged Iran’s nuclear program, which he previously said he had “destroyed” with airstrikes last year. But if Tehran maintains its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, it will also retain the theoretical ability to restart its nuclear program in the future.
There was also speculation this week that Trump could order a special forces operation to remove the radioactive material. However, doing so would require a massive ground force and an extremely high-risk mission. The US nuclear watchdog believes there are still about 200 kilograms of highly enriched uranium at the Isfahan nuclear plant. Without eliminating these stockpiles, Washington can never be truly certain of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Political stagnation in Iran
The ending of wars is rarely as clean and unequivocal as the victory of the United States over Nazism and Imperial Japan in 1945. It could even be argued that the nation has lost far more wars than it has won since then.
However, Trump faces the inevitable consequences of a war of choice. He must emerge from it with a victory before the initial advantage of military power wears off and a weaker opponent poses a final test of endurance.
Trump started the war by telling the Iranians that “your time for freedom has come” and that they had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rebel against their theocratic autocracy. So far, however, there are no public signs of such an uprising. Many analysts believe the most likely scenario is another harsh crackdown by the government once the US and Israeli bombing stops. While Trump could still claim a strategic victory if the regime’s threat to the wider Middle East is neutralized, it would be a far cry from his initial public bellicose rhetoric.
The political situation in the United States
Officials are assuring Americans that the increase in oil prices caused by the war is temporary and a necessary short-term cost for a long-term benefit. Yet the prospect of an Iranian nuclear bomb, which did not yet exist when the war broke out, seems much more distant in the ambidextrous voting districts of the US midterm elections than it does in Israel, where it poses a possible existential threat.
As Americans mourn fallen military personnel and see already strained family budgets further strained by rising gas prices and spiraling cost-of-living increases, they are unlikely to share in Trump’s victory celebrations.
