In Portugal, the food basket rose again and this week reached the highest value since this set of essential products began to be monitored. The total exceeded 254 euros, in a context of growing international tension that once again raises doubts about the possible impact of global instability on the prices paid by families.
The increase, however, does not appear to be linked, for now, to the conflict in the Middle East. According to , a website specializing in economics, management and corporate current affairs, the most recent data from the consumer protection association DECO PROteste show that the rise in prices had already been occurring since the beginning of the year.
Furthermore, the basket of essential goods monitored by the organization reached 254.12 euros, the highest value recorded since the beginning of this analysis in Portugal. Compared to the beginning of 2026, the set of products became R$12.3 more expensive, which represents an increase of 5.09%.
The difference becomes even more evident when we go back to 2022. In the first week of this year, when monitoring of this basic basket began, the price was R$66.42 lower. In practice, it means that the total cost increased by 35.39% in just over four years.
Although the current escalation of tension in the Middle East coincides with this new maximum, experts consider that it is still too early to establish a direct relationship between the two phenomena.
Food basket reaches new maximum
Between March 4th and 11th, some products registered particularly sharp increases. Tuna cooked in vegetable oil was one of the most obvious cases, with an increase of around 33% in the space of a week.
Frankfurt sausages also saw a significant increase, close to 20%. Spiral dough increased by around 12% in the same period.
These variations help to explain the overall rise in the basket, although experts emphasize that price behavior is often the result of multiple factors, from logistical costs to commercial strategies.
Conflict in the Middle East still without direct impact
The tension in the Middle East has already had an impact on the international energy market. The price of oil has once again surpassed the barrier of 100 dollars per barrel, which raises fears of a knock-on effect on the economy.
Still, analysts consider that any impact on food prices would unlikely be immediate. Economist Filipe Garcia, from the consultancy Informação de Mercados Financeiros, explains that the economic effects of international conflicts generally take some time to be reflected in supermarkets.
According to the expert, there is currently no shortage of products that justifies sudden increases. If there are immediate increases, he adds, these could mainly result from market expectations or speculative movements.
Transport and energy can put pressure on prices
If the international situation drags on, the effects may emerge later through other costs, especially those associated with transportation.
In Portugal, more than 90% of goods are moved by truck. A significant increase in fuel prices could, therefore, end up having an impact on the final price paid by consumers.
Fertilizers could also become more expensive if disruptions persist in trade routes in the Gulf region, as many of these products pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Given this scenario, economists advocate paying extra attention to price developments in the coming months. They remember that situations of international instability have caused rapid increases in the past, not always accompanied by an equally rapid drop when the pressure decreases.
Price monitoring therefore becomes essential to understand the extent to which these variations reflect real costs or market dynamics. According to Executive Digest, developments over the next few weeks could help clarify whether the current increase is just a one-off episode or the beginning of a new phase of pressure on food prices in Portugal.
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