The dispute that is projected between (Republicans) and () for this year’s Government should be tougher than the one fought in 2022, won by Tarcísio, in the view of allies of the two pre-candidates.
While the previous campaign had a strong national character, especially because of the polarization between PT and Bolsonarists personified by (PT) and (PL), this year both Tarcísio and Haddad will have to defend their own administrations — in the São Paulo government and in the , respectively — and explore the controversies of the opponent’s administration.
The Finance Minister adopted an increasingly critical tone in recent interviews when referring to the governor, who showed irritation and returned the attacks. On Friday (13), Haddad stated for the first time that he will participate in the election, in an interview with the Opera Mundi website, but did not confirm that he will run for state government.
Those around the two possible candidates deny the climate of hostilities and speak of propositional campaigns, designed to discuss problems and solutions for the state.
On February 27th, during an excerpt of the interview in which he talked about the weight of the Brazilian tax burden, Haddad shared responsibility for the tax increase with the governors and cited Tarcísio. “Why did Tarcísio decide to charge Shopee ICMS?” asked the minister.
The quote to the Chinese online retailer was an indirect reference to the implementation of the “blouse tax” — a 20% tax on international purchases of up to US$50 (R$261) —, implemented in 2024, which generated strain on the government and criticism of the minister. Haddad argued that governors had also raised tax rates to protect national retailers from Asian competition.
On March 3, in an interview with José Luiz Datena, on Rádio Nacional, Haddad cited Tarcísio once again, this time in a harsher way.
“I have received information, including from the base, the teaching profession and the police, which is showing a very high degree of dissatisfaction [com Tarcísio]. But I don’t know to what extent it is possible to explore this because of the shielding that is done to Tarcísio. We don’t talk about the government, we don’t talk about achievement, we don’t talk about anything”, said the minister.
The governor, who usually chooses which questions he answers during press conferences, returned both quotes at once, last Wednesday (11), during a , in Paraíso, south of the capital of São Paulo.
Tarcísio was asked about the supposed “shielding” of which he would benefit and returned the question to the journalist: “Do you think this is true? The media is always critical.” Then he added: “What can I do if he [Haddad] increased a tax every 30 days?”
An ally of the governor noted that Haddad’s criticisms were of the management, not personal attacks against the governor, and that Tarcísio responded in the same tone. For this ally, the understanding is that any criticism from the minister is predictable and will always be responded to.
On Haddad’s side, an allied state deputy considered that, four years ago, there was little to explore about Tarcísio, whose public experience was his time at the Ministry of Infrastructure. Now, with mistakes and successes documented, still in the assessment of this ally, it will be natural for the new campaign to be more critical.
None of the allies, however, rule out that national issues and political polarization will be in the new dispute, especially because one of the functions of Haddad’s candidacy is to guarantee more votes for Lula in São Paulo.
last week he showed the pre-candidate for re-election with 44% of voting intentions in a simulation of the first round, in which the PT member scored 31%.
In 2022, Tarcísio was elected with 55.3% of valid votes in the second round, against 44.7% for Haddad.
During the interview with Rádio Nacional, shortly after the quote to Tarcísio, the minister described the previous dispute in a positive way. “I ran a high-level campaign with Tarcísio in 2022. That’s what everyone said, right? A campaign that discussed ideas, discussed problems and solutions,” he stated.
However, the previous campaign, marked by the clash between PT and Bolsonaro supporters, contained episodes of attacks by Haddad on Tarcísio, especially on topics such as vaccination and school dropout, in which Jair Bolsonaro’s government was criticized. Tarcísio already stated, during the last debate, on Globo, that the PT campaign was spreading fake news.
After , however, the confrontation between Tarcísio and Haddad cooled down and the two pre-candidates came to have a moment of political alliance at the beginning of the government, which ended up putting the governor in the crosshairs of Bolsonaro supporters.
In June 2023, during discussions for tax reform, the governor and the minister even gave an interview together to discuss the agreement that made it possible to vote on the text. On the same day, Bolsonaro called Tarcísio to a meeting with party parliamentarians, and .
